...
首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change
【24h】

A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change

机译:鱼和贝类对未来气候变化的响应建模框架

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           

摘要

A framework is outlined for a unified approach to forecasting the implications of climate change on production of marine fish. The framework involves five steps: (ⅰ) identification of mechanisms underlying the reproductive success, growth, and distribution of major fish and shellfish populations, (ⅱ) assessment of the feasibility of downscaling implications of climate scenarios derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models for regional ecosystems to select and estimate relevant environmental variables, (ⅲ) evaluation of climate model scenarios and select IPCC models that appear to provide valid representations of forcing for the region of study, (ⅳ) extraction of environmental variables from climate scenarios and incorporation into projection models for fish and shellfish, and (ⅴ) evaluation of the mean, variance, and trend in fish and shellfish production under a changing ecosystem. This framework was applied to forecast summer sea surface temperature in the Bering Sea from 2001 to 2050. The mean summer surface temperature was predicted to increase by 2℃ by 2050. The forecasting framework was also used to estimate the effects of climate change on production of northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) through projected changes in cross-shelf transport of larvae in the Bering Sea. Results suggest that climate change will lead to a modest increase in the production of strong year classes of northern rock sole.
机译:概述了一个框架,用于采用统一方法来预测气候变化对海水鱼生产的影响。该框架包括五个步骤:(ⅰ)确定主要鱼类和贝类种群繁殖成功,生长和分布的根本机制,(ⅱ)评估政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提出的气候情景降尺度影响的可行性)区域生态系统的模型,以选择和估计相关的环境变量,(ⅲ)对气候模型情景进行评估,并选择IPCC模型,这些模型似乎可以为研究区域提供有效的强迫表示,(ⅳ)从气候情景中提取环境变量和将其纳入鱼类和贝类的预测模型,以及(ⅴ)在变化的生态系统中评估鱼类和贝类生产的均值,方差和趋势。该框架用于2001年至2050年白令海的夏季海表温度预测。预计到2050年夏季平均海表温度将升高2℃。该预测框架还用于估算气候变化对白令海生产的影响。通过预测白令海中幼虫跨架运输的变化来确定北部岩底(Lepidopsetta polyxystra)。结果表明,气候变化将使北部岩层的强年级产量适度增加。

著录项

  • 来源
    《ICES Journal of Marine Science》 |2009年第7期|1584-1594|共11页
  • 作者单位

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA;

    Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, Box 354925, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA;

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA;

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA;

    Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management Program, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA;

    Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada;

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA;

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, 75 Virginia Beach Drive, Miami, FL 33149-1003, USA;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate change; fish and shellfish management; fisheries oceanography; spawner-recruitment; stock projection models;

    机译:气候变化;鱼类和贝类管理;渔业海洋学;产生者招募;库存预测模型;

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号