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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Predicting the potential distribution of the vase tunicate Ciona intestinalis in Canadian waters: informing a risk assessment
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Predicting the potential distribution of the vase tunicate Ciona intestinalis in Canadian waters: informing a risk assessment

机译：预测在加拿大水域中被膜包被的Ciona intestinalis花瓶的潜在分布：告知风险评估

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A crucial step in characterizing the potential risk posed by non-native species is determining whether a potential invader can establish in the introduced range and what its potential distribution could be. To this end, various environmental models ranging from simple to complex have been applied to predict the potential distribution of an invader, with varying levels of success. Recently, in marine waters, tunicates have received much attention, largely because of their negative impacts on shellfish aquaculture. One of these species is the vase tunicate Ciona intestinalis, which recently has had a negative impact on aquaculture operations in Atlantic Canada and could pose a risk in Pacific Canada. To inform the risk assessment of this species, we evaluated two different types of environmental model. Simple models based on reported temperature or salinity tolerances were relatively uninformative, because almost all waters were deemed suitable. In contrast, a more complex genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (CARP) environmental niche model, based on documented Canadian occurrence points, provided informative projections of the potential distribution in Canadian waters. In addition to informing risk assessments, these predictions can be used to focus monitoring activities, particularly towards vectors that could transport C. intestinalis to these favourable environments.
机译：表征非本地物种构成的潜在风险的关键步骤是确定潜在入侵者是否可以在引入的范围内建立以及其潜在分布可能是什么。为此，已经采用了从简单到复杂的各种环境模型来预测入侵者的潜在分布，并获得不同程度的成功。近来，在海域，被膜类被广泛关注，主要是因为它们对贝类水产养殖产生负面影响。这些物种之一是被膜被膜成虫的肠肠，最近对加拿大大西洋的水产养殖业产生了负面影响，并可能在加拿大太平洋地区造成风险。为了告知该物种风险评估，我们评估了两种不同类型的环境模型。基于报告的温度或盐度容忍度的简单模型相对没有信息，因为几乎所有水都被认为是合适的。相反，基于记录的加拿大发生点的更复杂的规则集预测（CARP）环境生态位模型遗传算法，提供了加拿大水域中潜在分布的信息丰富的预测。除了为风险评估提供依据外，这些预测还可用于集中监控活动，尤其是针对可将小肠弯曲杆菌运送到这些有利环境的媒介。

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