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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Modelling stock-recruitment relationships to examine stock management policies
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Modelling stock-recruitment relationships to examine stock management policies

机译：建模库存-招聘关系以检查库存管理策略

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摘要

Simulation studies are used widely for fish stock management. In such studies, forecasting future recruitment, which can vary greatly between years, has become an essential part of evaluating management strategies. We propose a new forecasting algorithm to predict recruitment for short- or medium-term stochastic projections, using a stock-recruitment relationship. We address cases in which the spawning stock has dropped below previously observed levels, or in which predicted recruitment is situated close to the maximum observed level. The relative prediction error of seven existing algorithms was compared with that of the new model using leave-one-out cross-validation for 61 data sets from ICES, the Japanese Fisheries Agency, and PICES. The new algorithm had the smallest prediction error for 49 of the data sets, but was slightly biased by the precautionary treatment of predictions of high recruitment.
机译：模拟研究已广泛用于鱼类种群管理。在这样的研​​究中，预测未来的招聘可能会在几年间发生很大的变化，这已成为评估管理策略的重要组成部分。我们提出了一种新的预测算法，可以使用库存-招聘关系来预测短期或中期随机预测的招聘。我们处理产卵量下降到低于先前观察到的水平，或预测的招募量接近最大观察到的水平的情况。使用来自ICES，日本渔业厅和PICES的61个数据集的留一法交叉验证，将七个现有算法的相对预测误差与新模型的相对预测误差进行了比较。新算法对49个数据集的预测误差最小，但由于对高招聘预测的预防性处理而略有偏差。

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