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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Evaluation of multiple management objectives for Northeast Atlantic flatfish stocks: sustainability vs. stability of yield
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Evaluation of multiple management objectives for Northeast Atlantic flatfish stocks: sustainability vs. stability of yield

机译：评估东北大西洋比目鱼种群的多种管理目标：可持续性和。产量的稳定性

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This paper describes a simulation study that evaluated the ICES scientific advisory process used to recommend total allowable catches (TACs) for flatfish stocks. Particular emphasis is given to examining the effects on stock biomass, yield and stability of constraining interannual variation in TACs. A "management strategy evaluation" approach is used where an operating model is used to represent the underlying reality, and pseudo data are generated for use within a management procedure. The management procedure comprises a stock assessment that uses data to estimate parameters of interest and a decision rule to derive TAC recommendations for the following year. Bounds on TAC of between 20% and 40% have little effect on yields or stability, while a 10% bound on TAC can affect the ability to achieve management targets and result in low-frequency cycling in the stock. In the short term, performance is highly dependent on current stock status but bounds have less effect if the stock is close to equilibrium for a target fishing mortality (F). In addition, it was shown that current ICES biomass and fishing mortality reference points are not always consistent, and several are clearly inappropriate. Importantly, including realistic sources and levels of uncertainty can result in far from optimal management outcomes based on the current procedures. Results also conflicted with expert opinion, in suggesting that management based on a fixed F regime could result in relatively stable yields despite fluctuations in year-class strength and that the management feedback process itself is implicated in causing fluctuations in the system due to significant time-lags in this process. We therefore emphasize that providing more precise population estimates or developing harvest control rules alone will not necessarily help in achieving management objectives, rather management procedures that are robust to uncertainty and tuned to meet management objectives need to be developed. Operating models in these simulations were constrained to be based on existing ICES methods and perceptions of stock dynamics, but we recommend that, in future, operating models that represent the best available understanding of the actual system dynamics be used to evaluate models and rules considered for application.
机译：本文介绍了一项模拟研究，该研究评估了ICES科学咨询过程，该过程用于推荐比目鱼种群的总允许捕捞量（TAC）。特别强调检查限制TAC的年际变化对种群生物量，产量和稳定性的影响。使用“管理策略评估”方法，其中使用操作模型来表示基础现实，并生成伪数据以在管理过程中使用。管理程序包括一个库存评估，该评估使用数据估计感兴趣的参数，并使用决策规则得出下一年的TAC建议。 TAC的范围在20％到40％之间对收率或稳定性几乎没有影响，而TAC上的10％绑定会影响实现管理目标的能力并导致库存中的低频循环。在短期内，业绩高度依赖于目前的种群状况，但如果种群接近目标捕捞死亡率（F），则界限的影响较小。此外，结果表明，目前的ICES生物量和捕捞死亡率参考点并不总是一致的，其中有几个显然是不合适的。重要的是，包括现实的来源和不确定性水平可能导致基于当前程序的最佳管理结果远非如此。结果还与专家意见相抵触，表明尽管年级实力有所波动，但基于固定F体制的管理仍可能导致相对稳定的收益，并且管理反馈过程本身也可能因时间过长而导致系统波动。在这个过程中滞后。因此，我们强调指出，仅提供更准确的人口估计数或制定收成控制规则并不一定有助于实现管理目标，而是需要制定对不确定性具有鲁棒性并进行调整以满足管理目标的管理程序。这些模拟中的操作模型被限制为基于现有的ICES方法和对股票动态的感知，但是我们建议将来，使用代表对实际系统动态的最佳可用理解的操作模型来评估考虑到的模型和规则。应用。

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