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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Avoiding misinterpretation of climate change projections of fish catches
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Avoiding misinterpretation of climate change projections of fish catches

机译：避免误解鱼获量对气候变化的预测

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It is common to assume that climate change impacts on future fish catches, relative to current levels of catch, are directly proportional to changes in the capacity of the ocean to produce fish. However, this would only be the case if production was optimized, which is not the case, and continues to do so in the future, which we do not know. It is more appropriate to see changes in the ocean's productive capacity as providing an upper limit to future fish catches, but whether these catches are an increase or a decrease from present catch levels depends on management decisions now and in the future, rather than on the ocean's productive capacity alone. Disregarding the role of management in driving current and future catches is not only incorrect but it also removes any encouragement for management agencies to improve performance. It is concluded that climate change provides one of the most powerful arguments to improve fisheries-and environmental-management, and thus fisheries sustainability globally.
机译：通常认为气候变化对未来鱼类产量的影响相对于目前的产量水平与海洋生产鱼类能力的变化成正比。但是，只有在优化生产的情况下才会出现这种情况，情况并非如此，并且会在未来继续这样做，这是我们所不知道的。最好将海洋生产能力的变化视为未来渔获量的上限，但是这些渔获量是从目前的渔获量水平上升还是下降取决于当前和将来的管理决策，而不是取决于仅海洋的生产能力。忽视管理在推动当前和未来捕捞量中的作用不仅是错误的，而且消除了对管理机构提高绩效的任何鼓励。结论是，气候变化是改善渔业和环境管理，从而改善全球渔业可持续性的最有力论据之一。

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