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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Lessepsian fish invasion in Mediterranean marine protected areas: a risk assessment under climate change scenarios
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Lessepsian fish invasion in Mediterranean marine protected areas: a risk assessment under climate change scenarios

机译：地中海海洋保护区的小肠鱼类入侵：气候变化情景下的风险评估

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摘要

Mediterranean marine protected areas (MPAs), designed to achieve long-term nature conservation, are progressively conquered by invasive species of tropical origin, posing novel challenges for managers and policymakers of the 21st century. In this study, we assessed the vulnerability of 142 coastal Mediterranean MPAs to nine of the most invasive fishes under current and future climatic conditions. We predicted invasive species' habitat suitability using an ensemble modelling approach, calibrating models on the entire distribution of the species. We categorized three risk levels for Mediterranean MPAs, based on the assumption that more suitable habitat conditions make protected areas more prone to invasion. Future projections forecasted an increase of suitable areas for all considered species in the Mediterranean basin. In the Levantine Sea, almost all MPAs are at high risk of invasion by the considered species both in the current and future scenarios. MPAs located in the other Mediterranean sectors have currently a low suitability for most invasive species, but their risk level will increase overall by 2050, especially in the South Adriatic Sea and off South Western Italy. By identifying spatial priorities in a global change context, we fill critical information gaps on the vulnerability of MPAs to the future expansion of warm-water invaders.
机译：设计用于实现长期自然保护的地中海海洋保护区（MPA）逐渐被热带起源的入侵物种所征服，这给21世纪的管理者和决策者提出了新的挑战。在这项研究中，我们评估了在当前和未来气候条件下，142种地中海沿海MPA对9种最具入侵性的鱼类的脆弱性。我们使用集成建模方法预测了入侵物种的栖息地适宜性，并在物种的整个分布上进行了模型校准。我们基于更合适的栖息地条件使保护区更易于入侵的假设，将地中海MPA的风险等级分为三类。未来的预测表明，地中海盆地所有被考虑物种的合适面积都会增加。在黎凡特海，在目前和将来的情况下，几乎所有海洋保护区都有被考虑的物种入侵的高风险。目前，位于地中海其他地区的MPA对大多数入侵物种的适应性较低，但到2050年，其总体风险水平将增加，尤其是在南亚得里亚海和意大利西南部以外的地区。通过在全球变化的背景下确定空间优先事项，我们填补了有关海洋保护区对温水入侵者未来扩展的脆弱性的关键信息空白。

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