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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Model-free time series analysis detected the contributions of middle-age spawner biomass and the environment on Pacific bluefin tuna recruitment
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Model-free time series analysis detected the contributions of middle-age spawner biomass and the environment on Pacific bluefin tuna recruitment

机译：无模型时间序列分析检测了中年水果生物量和环境对太平洋蓝鳍金枪鱼招聘的贡献

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摘要

The relationship between the biomass of Pacific bluefin tuna (PBF) spawners and the amount of recruitment (stock-recruitment relationship, SRR) is unclear. It is likely that environmental effects have masked the SRR of PBF. As the basis of constructing an effective SRR for PBF, we examined the effect of spawning biomass at different ages and the spatiotemporal patterns of environmental effects on the amount of recruitment, using a recently developed model-free nonlinear time series analysis method (empirical dynamic modelling, EDM). EDM revealed where, when, and how the environment affected the amount of recruitment. EDM also found a significant contribution of ages 8-9 spawners on recruitment dynamics and that the amount of recruitment plateaus with increase in ages 8-9 spawners. Based on knowledge obtained from EDM, we formulated several example SRRs that incorporated environmental effects (sea surface temperature). The newly developed SRR with information from EDM outperformed the SRR without this information. Finally, we interpreted the results based on preceding observational and experimental studies and discussed the potential of applying the combination of EDM and mathematical modelling towards the sustainable use of other stocks.
机译：太平洋蓝鳍金枪鱼（PBF）产卵的生物量与招聘金额（股票招聘关系，SRR）之间的关系尚不清楚。环境影响可能掩盖了PBF的SRR。作为为PBF构建有效SRR的基础，我们研究了利用最近开发的无模型非线性时间序列分析方法（经验动态造型）对不同年龄的产卵生物质和时空模式对招生量的时空模式的影响。（经验动态造型，EDM）。 EDM揭示了环境影响的地方，何时以及如何影响招聘金额。 EDM还发现了8-9岁的招聘动态的大幅贡献，以及招聘金融金额，增长8-9岁的产卵。基于从EDM获得的知识，我们制定了几个实施例，其掺入了环境影响（海面温度）。没有此信息，新开发的SRR与EDM的信息表现优于SRR。最后，我们解释了基于先前的观察和实验研究的结果，并讨论了应用EDM和数学建模的组合朝着可持续利用其他股票的潜力。

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