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A Novel Effectiveness Evaluation Method Based on Simultaneous Probabilistic Finite-State Machines

机译：一种基于同时概率有限状态机的新型效果评估方法

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摘要

To reflect the influence of diverse battlefield information to the operational effectiveness (OE) of weapon systems, this article gives a novel evaluation method. The method is based on a set of simultaneous probabilistic finite-state machines (SPFSMs). It can evaluate the OE of the whole system and subeffectiveness of subsystems simultaneously. This makes it convenient to analyze the main OE influencing factors and to provide effectiveness improvement plans. To achieve this, the traditional probabilistic finite-state machine (PFSM) model of the whole system is decomposed into a set of PFSM models of subsystems. This makes it possible to consider more influencing factors of both friendly and hostile forces, without a sharp increase in the model size. To make the method applicable universally, this article proposes a complete theoretical system of SPFSM sets, including the definition and properties. And to reflect the random property of system inputs, a set of input probabilities is added to traditional PFSM definitions. Based on this theory, this article gives concrete OE evaluation methods and steps. A simulation example of an antiship missile is given and analyzed to demonstrate the utility of the proposed method.
机译：为了反映各种战场信息对武器系统运营效率（OE）的影响，本文提供了一种新颖的评估方法。该方法基于一组同时概率有限状态机（SPFSMS）。它可以同时评估整个系统的OE和子系统的子系统。这使得分析主要OE的影响因素并提供有效改进计划。为此，整个系统的传统概率有限状态机（PFSM）模型被分解成一组子系统的PFSM模型。这使得可以考虑更多的影响友好和敌对的力量，而模型规模没有急剧增加。为了使该方法适用，本文提出了一个完整的SPFSM集理系统，包括定义和属性。为了反映系统输入的随机属性，将添加了一组输入概率到传统的PFSM定义。基于该理论，本文提供了具体的OE评估方法和步骤。给出并分析了抗真导弹的模拟实例，以证明所提出的方法的效用。

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