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首页> 外文期刊>IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing >Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Droughts for a Water-Limited Subcontinental Region by Integrating a Land Surface Model and Microwave Remote Sensing
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Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Droughts for a Water-Limited Subcontinental Region by Integrating a Land Surface Model and Microwave Remote Sensing

机译:通过整合陆地面模型和微波遥感,监测和预测水有限的亚联土地区的农业干旱

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摘要

Agricultural drought monitoring and prediction technology are urgently needed. We applied an ecohydrological land data assimilation system (LDAS), which can simulate soil moisture and leaf area index (LAI) by data assimilation of microwave brightness temperature into a land surface model (LSM), to monitor and predict agricultural droughts in North Africa. We successfully monitor nationwide crop failures, which are characterized by the declines of the nationwide wheat production, in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia using LAI and soil moisture calculated by the LDAS. Our simulated LAI is well correlated with the nationwide wheat production ( $r= 0.70$ , 0.65, and 0.72 in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, respectively). A general circulation model (GCM)-based seasonal meteorological prediction significantly contributes to accurately predicting LAI and agricultural droughts in 2-3-month lead time. In addition, it is found that initial conditions have an important role in predicting LAI. We demonstrate the capability of our framework to monitor and predict agricultural drought in North Africa. Our proposed framework can contribute to mitigating the negative impact of drought on agriculture in poorly gauged water-limited subcontinental regions.
机译:迫切需要农业干旱监测和预测技术。我们应用了生态水上土地数据同化系统(LDA),可以通过将微波亮度温度的数据同化模拟土壤湿度和叶面积指数(LAI),进入陆地表面模型(LSM),以监测和预测北非农业干旱。我们成功监测全国性的作物故障,其特征在于全国范围的小麦产量,摩洛哥,阿尔及利亚和突尼斯的危机,使用LAI计算的土壤水分和土壤水分。我们的模拟赖与全国范围的小麦产量(分别为摩洛哥,阿尔及利亚和突尼斯的$ r = 0.70美元,0.65和0.72美元)。基于一般的循环模型(GCM)的季节气象预测显着有助于准确地预测赖和农业干旱,在2-3个月的时间内。此外,发现初始条件在预测LAI方面具有重要作用。我们展示了我们的框架来监测和预测北非农业干旱的能力。我们拟议的框架可以减轻干旱在衡量的水有限的亚道上地区农业对农业的负面影响。

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