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首页> 外文期刊>IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing >Lightning Location System Detections as Evidence: A Unique Bayesian Framework
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Lightning Location System Detections as Evidence: A Unique Bayesian Framework

机译：闪电定位系统检测作为证据：独特的贝叶斯框架

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摘要

Modern lightning location systems (LLSs) remotely detect propagated electromagnetic fields and geolocate them for a better understanding of the lightning phenomenon. In recent years, they have become powerful tools for assessing situations where lightning may be the cause of damage. However, due to the random errors that occur in the remote sensing of electromagnetic propagation, such systems have median location accuracies between 50 and 100 m. This means that there is always some uncertainty in reported geolocations of lightning flashes. To date, there is no effective or standardized method for quantifying this uncertainty and using LLS reports as evidence. This article presents a unique solution to this problem by developing a Bayesian framework. In the field of forensic investigation and engineering, the Bayesian approaches to reporting evidence are widely accepted in legal forums. This article describes the necessary prior probability and likelihood functions (Gaussian mixture model, bivariate Gaussian, and Students' t-distributions, respectively), and the framework is assessed by comparison with ground-truth events-photographed lightning events to a known location, the Brixton Tower in Johannesburg, South Africa. The framework has a true positive rate between 97% and 99% and 66% and 100% and a true negative rate between 98% and 99% using the bivariate Gaussian and Students' t-likelihood functions, respectively. Utilizing the bivariate Students' t-likelihood function achieves a much lower false-positive rate (0.05% to 0.2%) than the bivariate Gaussian likelihood function (0.7%-2%).
机译：现代闪电定位系统（LLSS）远程检测传播的电磁场，并使它们造成更好地了解闪电现象。近年来，他们已成为评估闪电可能是损坏原因的情况的强大工具。然而，由于电磁传播遥感中发生的随机误差，这种系统具有50至100米之间的中位位置精度。这意味着报告闪电闪烁的地理源总是存在一些不确定性。迄今为止，没有有效或标准化的方法，用于量化这种不确定性并使用LLS报告作为证据。本文通过开发贝叶斯框架对此问题提供了一个独特的解决方案。在法医调查与工程领域，贝叶斯报告证据的方法在法律论坛中被广泛接受。本文介绍了必要的现有概率和似然函数（高斯混合模型，分别分别的高斯高斯和学生的T分布），并且通过与地面真理事件拍摄的闪电事件进行比较来评估框架，以了解到已知位置， Brixton塔在约翰内斯堡，南非。该框架的真正阳性率在97％至99％和66％和100％之间，使用双变量高斯和学生的T-issiuly函数的98％和99％的真正负率。利用双方学生的T-issiulie函数比二芳的高斯似然函数（0.7％-2％）实现更低的假阳性率（0.05％至0.2％）。

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