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首页> 外文期刊>IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing >Impact of Satellite Radiance Data on Simulations of Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones Using the WRF-3DVAR Modeling System
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Impact of Satellite Radiance Data on Simulations of Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones Using the WRF-3DVAR Modeling System

机译：使用WRF-3DVAR建模系统的卫星辐射数据对孟加拉热带气旋湾模拟的影响

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摘要

This study attempts to evaluate whether assimilating radiance observations in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model could improve track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs) that occurred over the Bay of Bengal. The bias correction coefficients obtained from offline statistics, along with the quality control for radiances, were computed in the variational assimilation system. For this study, three numerical experiments named CNTL (no assimilation), GTS (with Global Telecommunication System observations), and RAD (radiance data along with GTS observations) were carried out with ten different model initial conditions for two TCs. The averaged root-mean-square errors of the analysis were relatively lower in the RAD experiments in comparison to the GTS experiments for all assimilation cycles of the meteorological variables. The mean initial position errors of TCs were reduced by 30%–47% in the RAD runs over the other runs. The results indicate that the assimilation of radiance data has a positive impact on the prediction of track, intensity, thermodynamic structures, and reflectivity associated with the storms. Improvements in mean landfall position errors were shown to range from 40% to 70% in the RAD experiments as compared to the CNTL and GTS simulations. This is because the RAD analyses are able to successfully reproduce the initial vortex and vertical structures as well as the prominent synoptic features associated with TC storms; therefore, the performance of the WRF modeling system is enhanced for simulations of track, structures, and intensity of TCs.
机译：这项研究试图评估在气象研究与预报（WRF）模型中吸收辐射观测值是否可以改善孟加拉湾上空发生的热带气旋（TC）的航迹，强度和降水预报。从离线统计数据中获得的偏差校正系数，以及对辐射的质量控制，均在变分同化系统中进行了计算。对于本研究，在两个TC的十种不同模型初始条件下，进行了三个数值实验，分别是CNTL（无同化），GTS（具有全球电信系统观测值）和RAD（辐射数据以及GTS观测值）。与所有气象变量同化周期的GTS实验相比，在RAD实验中，分析的平均均方根误差相对较低。 RAD运行与其他运行相比，TC的平均初始位置误差降低了30％–47％。结果表明，辐射数据的同化对与风暴相关的轨道，强度，热力学结构和反射率的预测具有积极影响。与CNTL和GTS仿真相比，在RAD实验中，平均登陆位置误差的改善范围为40％至70％。这是因为RAD分析能够成功地再现初始涡旋和垂直结构，以及与TC风暴相关的突出天气特征。因此，WRF建模系统的性能得以增强，可以模拟TC的轨迹，结构和强度。

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