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首页> 外文期刊>IEEE Transactions on Reliability >Effect of Truncated Input Parameter Distribution on the Integrity of Safety Instrumented Systems Under Epistemic Uncertainty
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Effect of Truncated Input Parameter Distribution on the Integrity of Safety Instrumented Systems Under Epistemic Uncertainty

机译：知识不确定性下截断的输入参数分布对安全仪表系统完整性的影响

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摘要

Safety instrumented system (SIS) is widely applied to reduce or prevent risk in industry. Practical SIS commonly meets with epistemic uncertainty arising from incompleteness of knowledge on various input parameters due to lack of data. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced by collecting more knowledge or data. Epistemic uncertainty in input parameters can lead to variation in probability of failure to perform its intended functions on demand (PFD) for an SIS. This paper employs the complementary cumulative distribution function of PFD to define exceedance probability (EP) that the PFD exceeds a prescribed value. Sensitivity analysis is further investigated, analyzing the effect of an epistemically uncertain input parameter with truncated distribution on EP of an SIS. We have derived the analytic expression for evaluating the effect, and only an evaluation is needed to estimate the effects of all the parameters. Two examples are employed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. We further compare the effects for the truncated and nontruncated parameter situations. Their results converge to the same ones as the truncated region of an input parameter decreases to zero. When the truncated region of an input parameter is less than 10 , the corresponding results can be approximated by the ones of the nontruncated case with lower computational cost.
机译：安全仪表系统（SIS）被广泛应用于降低或预防行业风险。实际的SIS通常会遇到由于缺乏数据而对各种输入参数的知识不完整而引起的认知不确定性。可以通过收集更多的知识或数据来减少认知上的不确定性。输入参数的认知不确定性可能导致SIS无法按需执行其预期功能（PFD）的概率发生变化。本文利用PFD的互补累积分布函数来定义PFD超过规定值的超出概率（EP）。进一步分析了敏感性分析，分析了具有截断分布的认识上不确定的输入参数对SIS的EP的影响。我们已经导出了用于评估效果的解析表达式，并且只需要评估就可以评估所有参数的效果。两个例子被用来证明所提出的方法的适用性。我们进一步比较了截断和非截断参数情况的影响。当输入参数的截断区域减小到零时，它们的结果收敛到相同的结果。当输入参数的截断区域小于10时，相应的结果可以通过非截断情况近似得出，而计算成本较低。

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