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首页> 外文期刊>IEEJ energy journal >A Study on the Feasibility of Complete Decarbonization of Japan's Power Sector in 2050: The Effect of Changes in Meteorological Conditions
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A Study on the Feasibility of Complete Decarbonization of Japan's Power Sector in 2050: The Effect of Changes in Meteorological Conditions

机译：2050年日本电力部门完全脱碳的可行性研究：气象条件变化的影响

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摘要

In this paper, we used an optimal power generation mix (OPGM) model, as well as meteorological data from 2000 to 2017, to assess the cost of achieving 100% renewable electricity mix in 2050 in Japan. Although the potentials of variable renewable energies, such as wind and solar PV, have been estimated to be large in Japan, grid-related system costs become significant in the cases with very high shares of variable renewables. Particularly, two factors affect the overall costs: the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power, and the required capacity of electricity storage systems. The former is dependent on the curtailment ratio of onshore wind and solar PV, whereas the latter is determined by the short-time "windless and sunless" factor, i.e. the maximum number of successive days with very small wind and solar power output. The analyses presented in this study highlight the necessity of using long-term meteorological data when estimating the economics of high penetration of variable renewables, as well as the importance of considering the risk of power supply disruption.
机译：在本文中，我们使用了最佳发电混合（OPGM）模型以及2000年至2017年的气象数据来评估2050年日本实现100％可再生电力混合的成本。尽管据估计在日本风能和太阳能PV等可变可再生能源的潜力很大，但在可变可再生能源份额很高的情况下，与电网相关的系统成本却变得很高。特别是，有两个因素会影响总成本：海上风电的累计装机容量和所需的电力存储系统容量。前者取决于陆上风能和太阳能光伏发电的削减比率，而后者则取决于短期的“无风无日”因素，即风能和太阳能发电量很小的连续天数的最大值。这项研究中提出的分析强调了在估算可变可再生能源的高渗透率经济性时必须使用长期气象数据，以及考虑电源中断风险的重要性。

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