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Supply and Demand Analysis on Petroleum Products and Crude Oils for Asia and the World

机译：亚洲和世界各地石油产品和原油的供需分析

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摘要

If steady growth in the product demand in the world results in a strained supply (Reference case in 2G10 and 2015), a look at Japan's refining capacity (approximately 4.80 million B/D) shows that approximately 20% of Japan's surplus refining capacity (or 16% on the gasoline and middle distillate basis) will be fully utilized - mainly for exports of high-quality (very low sulfur-content) petroleum products.rnJet fuel, gas oil and other middle distillates will be exported mainly to the Asian region (China, the ASEAN nations and Australia), while gasoline will be exported mainly to the west coast of the United States and the Australian region.rnRegarding inter-regional competition, there will be no competition between South Asia / Middle East, which export their products chiefly to the European and African markets, and East Asia, which targets the Pacific region (including Japan, South Korea and Taiwan but excluding China), with the exception of Australia.
机译：如果世界产品需求的稳定增长导致供应紧张（参考2G10和2015年的案例），那么对日本的炼油能力（约480万桶/日）的分析表明，日本约有20％的剩余炼油能力（或将充分利用16％的汽油和中间馏分油-主要用于出口高质量（极低硫含量）的石油产品。喷气燃料，粗柴油和其他中间馏分油将主要出口到亚洲地区（中国，东盟国家和澳大利亚），而汽油将主要出口到美国的西海岸和澳大利亚地区。关于地区间竞争，南亚/中东之间将没有竞争，后者出口其产品主要销往欧洲和非洲市场以及以太平洋地区（包括日本，韩国和台湾但不包括中国在内）为目标的东亚（澳大利亚除外）。

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  • 来源
    《IEEJ energy journal》 |2008年第3期|29-60|共32页
  • 作者

    Harumi Hirai; Yuhji Matsuo; Hiroshi Uno; Yu Nagatomi;

  • 作者单位

    Energy Demand-Supply and Forecast Analysis Group, The Energy Data and Modeling Center, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan;

    Energy Demand-Supply and Forecast Analysis Group, The Energy Data and Modeling Center, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan;

    Energy Demand-Supply and Forecast Analysis Group, The Energy Data and Modeling Center, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan;

    Energy Demand-Supply and Forecast Analysis Group, The Energy Data and Modeling Center, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan;

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