New Year, New Market

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New Year, New Market

机译：新年新市场

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The Federal Reserve finally hiked interest rates in December. When it comes to - interest rate volatility, though, is this liftoff the beginning of a roller coaster ride? Writes Vicky Zhao of Pacific Investment Management Co.: "To determine whether lower volatility can persist after extraordinarily accommodative monetary conditions cease, one has to expand the focus and examine the numerous drivers of interest rate volatility-many of which have undergone regime changes since 2008." Regulation passed since the Great Recession, such as the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, has led to tighter balance sheets and, in turn, higher transaction costs. With lower liquidity among market players, trades have a greater impact relative to their size than during or before the 2008 financial crisis. "The subsequent increased rigidity of the market structure means that we can expect more frequent gap moves," Zhao writes. "Despite the relatively tame recent market environment, U.S. interest rates are unlikely to be structurally less volatile going forward."

机译：美联储终于在12月提高了利率。但是，就利率波动而言，这种升空是过山车之旅的开始吗？ Pacific Investment Management Co.的Vicky Zhao写道：“要确定在异常宽松的货币条件停止后是否能够继续维持较低的波动性，就必须扩大关注范围并研究多种利率波动性驱动因素，其中许多自2008年以来就经历了政权更迭。”自大萧条以来通过的法规，例如《多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案》，导致资产负债表收紧，进而导致交易成本上升。由于市场参与者的流动性较低，因此与2008年金融危机期间或之前相比，交易对交易规模的影响更大。 Zhao写道：“随后市场结构僵化程度的提高意味着我们可以预期缺口的移动会更加频繁。” “尽管近期市场环境相对温和，但未来美国利率在结构上不太可能波动较小。”

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《Institutional investor》 |2016年第1期|31-31|共1页
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