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Limits of History

机译：历史的局限

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During the long years of the credit boom, most investors and bankers overlooked signs of excess and insisted that things were different than in previous eras. This was a shame, as there were manyrninteresting parallels to be drawn with earlier bubble periods.rnSince the crisis everyone aspires to become a financial historian. Yet it's as misguided to fashion crude analogs in finance as it is to ignore the lessons of the past.rnIn his latest book, The Road to Financial Reformation, Henry Kaufman bemoans Wall Street's poor collective memory. Business schools, complains the veteran economist, have preferred teaching quantitative methods to providing a historical perspective. As a result, freshly minted MBAs went out to create collateralized debt obligations, stress-tested using Monte Carlo simulations that proved they could never default. Their ignorance of the past turned out to be an expensive oversight.
机译：在信贷繁荣的漫长岁月中，大多数投资者和银行家都忽略了过度信贷的迹象，并坚持认为与以往不同。令人遗憾的是，早期的泡沫时期有许多有趣的相似之处。自危机以来，每个人都渴望成为金融历史学家。然而，在金融界推销原油类比就像忽略过去的教训一样被误导。在他的最新著作《通往金融改革的道路》中，亨利·考夫曼（Henry Kaufman）哀叹华尔街糟糕的集体记忆。这位资深经济学家抱怨说，商学院倾向于采用定量教学方法来提供历史观点。结果，刚崭露头角的MBA出去创建抵押债务，并使用蒙特卡洛模拟进行了压力测试，证明它们永远不会违约。他们对过去的无知变成了昂贵的监督。

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