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首页> 外文期刊>Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics and Business Law >Discounting Under Uncertainty and the Implications for Climate Change Mitigation Policy
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Discounting Under Uncertainty and the Implications for Climate Change Mitigation Policy

机译：不确定性下的折价及其对减缓气候变化政策的影响

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摘要

In this paper, the growth of certainty-equivalent (CE) consumption is incorporated directly into a modified Ramsey equation for the social discount rate. The novelty of the modelling approach to certainty-equivalence lies in the application of the power mean, where the power term reflects the degree of aversion to uncertainty regarding future consumption. From the theoretical model, it is demonstrated that the growth rates for CE consumption yield term structures for the discount rate which depend critically on the degree of aversion to uncertainty. The theory is supported by numerical demonstrations based on a plausible range of parameter values that reflect various degrees of aversion to uncertainty. The main finding is twofold: first, that a declining discount rate depends on project appraisers having a substantial degree of aversion to uncertainty and second, that the low discount rates favouring tough and urgent action in relation to climate change mitigation policy require mild aversion to uncertainty. Moderate aversion, consistent with official discount rate guidance from both the European Commission and the British Treasury, would favour a gradualist approach towards climate change mitigation which would be to the benefit of present and near-future generations.
机译：在本文中，确定性当量（CE）消费的增长直接纳入了社会折现率的修正Ramsey方程中。确定性等效性建模方法的新颖之处在于幂均值的应用，其中幂项反映了对未来消费不确定性的厌恶程度。从理论模型可以证明，CE消费的增长率产生了贴现率的期限结构，这主要取决于对不确定性的厌恶程度。该理论得到了数值论证的支持，该论证基于反映各种不同程度的不确定性的合理范围的参数值。主要发现有两个方面：第一，折现率的下降取决于项目评估人员对不确定性的高度厌恶程度；其次，低折现率有利于针对气候变化缓解政策采取强而有力的紧急行动，需要轻度地避免不确定性。适度的厌恶情绪与欧洲委员会和英国财政部的官方贴现率指导相一致，将有利于采取渐进的方法来缓解气候变化，这将有利于当代和近代人。

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    Erhun Kula; Yoko Nagase; David Evans;

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    Bahcesehir University, School of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Istanbul;

    Oxford Brookes University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Wheatley Campus, Oxford;

    Oxford Brookes University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Wheatley Campus, Oxford;

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