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Establishment creation and destruction across business density cycles: US evidence

机译:美国商业证据表明,整个企业密度周期中的机构创建和销毁

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This paper investigates how business establishment entry and exit are affected by cycles in business density. We assess how entry/exit behave when markets over and under shoot a dynamic equilibrium number of businesses and whether these effects differ between manufacturing and service industries. Overall, we find persistent cycles where the actual number of business establishments is typically not equal to the dynamic equilibrium number even though it gravitates towards it. We uncover a systematic pattern which indicates that in disequilibrium entry is dis-equilibrating while closure is equilibrating. For example, the entry rate plays a dis-equilibrating role by accelerating in an overshoot, however as exits accelerate even faster in an overshoot they help move the industry towards an equilibrium. Overall, the results indicate that entrepreneurs and corporations operate with a herd instinct thereby increasing establishments in a cyclical business density over shoot and decreasing them in an under shoot. In terms of economic policy, the results question whether government policy aimed at promoting business creation and expansion ought to have a counter business density cyclical dimension. In other words, should business start-up and growth be promoted more strongly in business density under shoots than over shoots?.
机译:本文研究了企业机构的进入和退出如何受到企业密度周期的影响。我们评估了当市场上下波动的企业动态均衡数量时进/出的行为,以及这些影响在制造业和服务业之间是否存在差异。总体而言,我们发现持续的周期中,尽管企业机构的实际数量趋向于动态均衡数,但其实际数量通常不等于动态均衡数。我们发现了一种系统模式,该模式表明进入不平衡状态而关闭处于平衡状态。例如,进入率通过超调的加速而起到失衡的作用,但是,随着退出在超调中的加速甚至更快,它们有助于使行业朝着均衡发展。总体而言,结果表明,企业家和公司本能地以畜群本能经营,从而在笋期增加了周期性商业密度的机构,而在笋期却减少了它们。在经济政策方面,研究结果质疑旨在促进商业创造和扩张的政府政策是否应该具有与商业密度相反的周期性维度。换句话说,枝条上的业务密度是否比枝条上的业务密度更高?

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