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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of critical infrastructure >Aware online interdependency modelling via evidence theory
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Aware online interdependency modelling via evidence theory

机译：通过证据理论进行在线相互依赖建模

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摘要

Critical infrastructure interdependency models are typically used in a simulation-based perspective, in order to perform 'what if?' analyses and identify structural vulnerabilities in a dynamic perspective. While in the literature some attempts have been made to use interdependency models at real time, such approaches are flawed by the inability to properly determine the ongoing situation. Such models, typically, receive data from SCADA systems, which are mostly able to assess the effects of failures rather than the causes, while knowing the typology of failure would increase dramatically the predictive-ability of online interdependency models. In this paper, a situation awareness framework is provided with the aim to complement online interdependency models by providing more specific information on the causes of the outages highlighted by sensor data. In order to determine such causes, in this paper a transferable belief model representation is adopted to increase the awareness of interdependency models on fault causes. Moreover in this paper some of the limitations of evidence theory methods are highlighted and discussed, with particular reference to a real time context, providing some insights on how to overcome them, especially the closed-world assumption.
机译：关键基础设施的相互依赖性模型通常用于基于仿真的角度，以便执行“假设条件如何”？从动态角度分析和识别结构漏洞。尽管在文献中已经进行了一些尝试来实时使用相互依赖性模型，但是这种方法由于不能正确确定正在进行的情况而存在缺陷。这样的模型通常从SCADA系统接收数据，这些数据通常能够评估故障的影响而不是原因，同时了解故障的类型将大大提高在线相互依赖模型的预测能力。在本文中，提供了一种态势感知框架，旨在通过提供有关传感器数据突出显示的中断原因的更具体信息来补充在线相互依赖性模型。为了确定这种原因，本文采用可转移的信念模型表示法来提高对故障原因的相互依赖性模型的认识。此外，在本文中，强调并讨论了证据理论方法的一些局限性，特别是针对实时上下文，提供了一些有关如何克服它们的见解，尤其是封闭世界的假设。

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