Using situational simulations to support decision making in co-dependent infrastructure systems

Amlan Mukherjee; Dana Johnson; Yongliang Jin; Roger Kieckhafer

首页> 外文期刊>International journal of critical infrastructure >Using situational simulations to support decision making in co-dependent infrastructure systems

【24h】

Using situational simulations to support decision making in co-dependent infrastructure systems

机译：使用情景模拟来支持相互依赖的基础架构系统中的决策

获取原文

获取原文并翻译 | 示例

掌桥外文数据库（机构版） >>

开具论文收录证明 >>

页面导航

摘要
著录项
相似文献
相关主题

摘要

In this paper we introduced an integrative network-based approach to modelling co-dependent infrastructure systems and simulating them within the general purpose framework of situational simulations. We introduced and discussed the underlying mathematical model of the simulation, and also discussed typical information that will drive it - specifically considering the case of the City of Houghton, Michigan, in the USA. We also implemented the situational simulation using a proposed process model and the information model, thus providing a prototypical product interface. The simulation is interactive and it allows decision makers to account for complex adaptive interactions among co-dependent infrastructure systems, and to account for non-linear feedbacks and counter-intuitive behaviour. The significance of this research is twofold:rn1 It provides an underlying model to represent and reason about co-dependent infrastructure systems.rn2 It implements the model within the general purpose framework of situational simulations that can be used by public infrastructure emergency management agencies to test crisis management strategies, assess risk, and specifically identify and prepare for events that expose system vulnerabilities.rnThis paper seeds an agenda for interdisciplinary future research with the ultimate goal of developing products that enhance decision making in managing co-dependent infrastructure systems.

机译：在本文中，我们介绍了一种基于网络的集成方法，用于对相互依赖的基础架构系统进行建模，并在情境模拟的通用框架内对其进行仿真。我们介绍并讨论了模拟的基本数学模型，还讨论了将推动模拟的典型信息-特别是考虑到美国密歇根州霍顿市的情况。我们还使用提议的过程模型和信息模型实施了情境仿真，从而提供了原型产品界面。该模拟是交互式的，它使决策者能够解决相互依赖的基础架构系统之间的复杂自适应交互，并能够解决非线性反馈和违反直觉的行为。这项研究的意义有两个方面：rn1它提供了一个基础模型来表示和依赖于相互依赖的基础设施系统。rn2它在情景模拟的通用框架内实现了该模型，公共基础设施应急管理机构可以使用该模型进行测试危机管理策略，评估风险，并明确识别并为暴露系统漏洞的事件做准备。本文为跨学科的未来研究提供了一个议程，其最终目标是开发产品，以增强管理相互依赖的基础架构系统的决策。

著录项

来源
《International journal of critical infrastructure》 |2010年第1期|52-72|共21页
作者
Amlan Mukherjee; Dana Johnson; Yongliang Jin; Roger Kieckhafer;
展开▼
作者单位

Michigan Technological University 1400 Townsend Dr. Houghton, MI 49931, USA;

Michigan Technological University 1400 Townsend Dr. Houghton, MI 49931, USA;

Michigan Technological University 1400 Townsend Dr. Houghton, MI 49931, USA;

Michigan Technological University 1400 Townsend Dr. Houghton, MI 49931, USA;

展开▼
收录信息
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
simulations; co-dependent infrastructure systems; transportation; modelling;

机译：模拟;相互依赖的基础设施系统;运输;造型;

相似文献

外文文献
中文文献
专利

1. A simulation-based decision support system to prevent and predict strain situations in emergency department systems [J] . Farid Kadri, Sondes Chaabane, Christian Tahon Simulation modelling practice and theory: International journal of the Federation of European Simulation Societies . 2014,第Null期

机译：基于仿真的决策支持系统，用于预防和预测急诊科系统中的应变情况
2. Microkinetic simulations of the oxidation of CO on Pd based nanocatalysis: a model including co-dependent support interactions [J] . Christopher J. Harding, Sebastian Kunz, Vahideh Habibpour Physical chemistry chemical physics: PCCP . 2008,第38期

机译：基于Pd的纳米催化上CO氧化的微动力学模拟：一个包括相互依赖的支持相互作用的模型
3. The interaction between off-site decision making, decision support systems, modelling and monitoring in a nuclear emergency situation [J] . Matthias Zaehringer, Erich Wirth International journal of emergency management . 2007,第3期

机译：核紧急情况下的异地决策，决策支持系统，建模和监视之间的交互
4. DEVELOPMENT OF DECISION SUPPORT AND SIMULATION SYSTEM BPsim.DSS: INTEGRATION OF SIMULATION, EXPERT, SITUATIONAL AND MULTI-AGENT MODELING [C] . Konstantin A. Aksyonov, rnEugene A. Bykov, rnOlga P. Aksyonova, Modelling and Simulation 2009 . 2009

机译：决策支持和仿真系统BPsim.DSS的开发：仿真，专家，情境和多Agent建模的集成
5. Extending Cyber-Physical Systems to Support Stakeholder Decisions Under Resource and User Constraints: Applications to Intelligent Infrastructure and Social Urban Systems [D] . Flanigan, Katherine A. 2020

机译：扩展网络物理系统，以支持资源和用户约束下的利益相关者决策：智能基础设施和社会城市系统的应用
6. IV. Clinical Consultation Systems Medical Decision Support Systems and Clinical Research Data Bases: A. Medical Decision Support and Artificial Intelligence Methodologies: Automation of Formal Rules for Clinical Decision-Making Support Imbedded in an Information System [O] . R.H. Friedman, A.D. Frank 1981

机译：IV。临床咨询系统医疗决策支持系统和临床研究数据库：A.医疗决策支持和人工智能方法：信息系统中嵌入的临床决策支持形式规则的自动化
7. Decision-making is the process of analyzing information about a problem situation and comparing it to a specific conclusion in order to solve a specific problematic (Yıkılmaz, 2001; Miller and Byrnes, 2001). Decision-making styles are a mechanism that is influenced by the internal and external conditions that determine the direction of the decisions of the individual, the content of the decision-making process, and the outcome of the decision-making process (Payne, Bettman and Johson, 1993; Bavol’ár and Orosová, 2015). ACT is a contemporary member of the Cognitive Behavioral Therapy family. ACT (Acceptance and commitment therapy) has both similar and different directions with Behavioral Therapies and Cognitive Therapies (Herbet and Forman, 2011; Hayes, 2004). KKT responds to classical behavioral treatments using both existential and cognitive approaches in the analysis of behavior. KKT is a science wing that tries to solve human problems with a wider perspective aimed at solving problematic human behaviors (Plumb, Stewart, Dahl and Lundgren, 2009). It is seen that there is very little research about the new approach of ACT approach when the aiming country of our country is screened and it is thought that our country will contribute to the field of psychological counseling with the work done. In the scope of the research, experimental and control groups and preliminary test, post-test and follow-up measurements of 2x3 experimental design were used. The study's study group consists of a total of 24 (12 experimental and 12 control groups) university students studying in different departments and levels, continuing their education in the academic year of 2015-2016 in Ağrı province and İbrahim Chechen University in 2015-2016 academic year. The average age of participants in the experiment and control group is 20. There were 12 participants in the experimental group, 7 female and 5 male, and 12 participants, 7 female and 5 male in the control group. Personal Information Form and Decision Making Style Scale prepared by the researcher were used in the research. In order to decide on the tests to be used in the course of analyzing the data, the scores of the participant's Decision Styles Scale pre-test, which are placed primarily in the experimental and control groups, it was analyzed whether the basic expectations of parametric tests were answered. As a result of the analysis made, the scores, skewness and kurtosis coefficients obtained from the Decision Making Styles Scale were given to the experimental and control groups. It was determined that the distribution was normal in the result of Shapiro-Wilk test, in which the skewness and kurtosis coefficients of each sub-scale were ranked between -1 and +1. Participants in the experimental and control groups; homogeneity test results for decision-style pre-test measurements indicate that the data are homogeneous. According to the results of the Mauchly Globalness Test, it has been determined that working supports the hypothesis. It was determined that there was no significant difference between the pre-test scores obtained from dependent decision-making style of experiment and control groups, but the test group showed lower mean scores at the significant level within the scores of post-test and follow-up tests. Therefore, it can be said that the ACT-oriented psychoeducation program applied to the experimental group reduces the dependent decision-making style scores from the decision style sub-dimensions and the psychoeducation program has a lasting effect. It was determined that there was no significant difference between pre-test, post-test and follow-up scores obtained from the Spontaneous-Instant Decision Style of experiment and control groups. Thus, it can be said that this situation does not cause a significant difference in the Spontaneous-Decision-Making Style scores from the decision style sub-dimensions of the ACT-oriented psychoeducation program applied to the experimental group. The ACT -oriented psychoeducation program had a decline in the intuitive decision-making styles of the individuals, but this decrease did not create significant differences. Thus, it can be said that this situation does not make a meaningful difference in the intuitive decision style scores from the decision style sub-dimensions of the KKT oriented psychoeducation program applied to the experimental group. The pre-test scores obtained from the rational decision-making style of the experimental and control groups showed that there was a difference between the post-test and the follow-up scores, but this difference was not significant. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the test group had higher levels of rational decision style than the pre - test scores in the post test and follow - up scores, whereas the post test and follow - up test scores in the control group rational decision style showed a decrease compared to the pre - test scores. the pre - test scores. Decision-making Styles Scale Avoidant Decision Making As a result of the analysis of the mean scores of the subscale scores of pre-test, post-test and follow-up measures, the group effect was found to be insignificant. It was determined that the experimental and control groups differed significantly from the pre-test scores obtained from the avoidant decision-making style but did not show any significant change within the scores of the post-test and follow-up tests. [O] . mustafa ercengiz, ali haydar şar 2018

机译：决策是分析有关问题情况的信息并将其与特定结论进行比较的过程，以解决特定的问题（Yıkılmaz，2001; Miller和Byrnes，2001）。决策风格是一种机制，受到内部和外部条件的影响，确定个人决定的方向，决策过程的内容以及决策过程的结果（PAYNE，BETTMAN和BEDNE） Johson，1993;Bavol'ár和奥萨洛瓦，2015）。法案是认知行为治疗家庭的当代成员。行为（验收和承诺治疗）具有与行为疗法和认知疗法的类似和不同方向（Herbet和Forman，2011; Hayes，2004）。 KKT在分析行为中使用存在性和认知方法来响应古典行为治疗方法。 KKT是一个科学翼，试图解决人类问题，旨在解决有问题的人类行为（铅垂，斯图尔特，Dahl和Lundgren，2009）。有人认为，当我们国家的瞄准国家进行筛选时，有关行动方法的新方法几乎没有研究，并且认为我们的国家将为完成工作做出贡献的心理咨询领域。在研究的范围内，使用实验和对照组和初步测试，使用后测试和后续测量的2x3实验设计。该研究的研究小组包括共24名（12个实验和12个对照组）大学学生在不同的部门和水平上学习，在2015-2016学术上继续进行2015-2016的学术年度2015-2016学年年。实验和对照组参与者的平均年龄是20.实验组中有12名参与者，7名女性和5名男性，12名参与者，7名女性和5名男性。研究人员准备的个人信息表格和决策制定风格规模在研究中使用。为了决定在分析数据的过程中使用的测试，参与者的决策风格刻度预测的分数主要在实验和对照组中进行，分析了参数的基本期望吗？测试得到了回答。由于对实验和对照组给出了从决策曲调标度获得的分数，偏移和峰度分子系数。确定该分布是正常的在成熟的-WILK试验结果中，其中每亚级的偏差和刚度系数在-1到+1之间排名。实验和对照组的参与者;决策式预测测量的同质性测试结果表明数据是均匀的。根据毛毛环保试验的结果，已确定工作支持假设。据确定，从依赖决策风格的实验和对照组获得的预测分数之间没有显着差异，但测试组在测试后的分数内显示出较低的平均分数和后续的分数 - 测试。因此，可以说，应用于实验组的面向活动的心理教育程序减少了决策风格子维度的依赖决策风格分数，并且心理教育程序具有持久的效果。据确定，从实验和对照组自发决策风格获得的预测试，测试后和后续评分之间没有显着差异。因此，可以说这种情况不会导致从应用于实验组的活动导向的心理教育程序的决策风格分数的自发决策风格分数显着差异。行为的心理教育计划在个人直观的决策风格下降，但这种减少并没有产生显着的差异。因此，可以说，这种情况不会在从应用于实验组的KKT导向的心理教育程序的决策风格分数中产生有意义的决策风格分数。从实验和对照组的理性决策风格获得的预测分数显示后检验后和随访评分之间存在差异，但这种差异并不重要。由于分析，确定测试组的理性决策风格较高，而不是后测试和后续分数的预测分数，而对照组合理决策风格的后测试和后续测试分数显示出与预测试分数相比的减少。预测分数。决策款式扩展避免决策由于分析了预测试，测试后和后续措施的班次评分的平均分数，发现群体效应是微不足道的。确定实验和对照组从避免决策风格获得的预测评分中显着不同，但在测试后和后续测试的分数内没有显示出任何重大变化。
8. Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System Decision Model: Overview and Quick-Start User's Guide [R] . Samsa, M. E., VanKuiken, J. C., Jusko, M. J. 2008

机译：关键基础设施保护决策支持系统决策模型：概述和快速入门用户指南

Using situational simulations to support decision making in co-dependent infrastructure systems

摘要

著录项

相似文献

相关主题

期刊订阅