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On the development of agent-based models for infrastructure evolution

机译：关于基于代理的基础结构演化模型的开发

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摘要

Infrastructure systems for energy, water, transport, information, etc., are large-scale sociotechnical systems that are critical for achieving a sustainable world. They were not created at the current global scale at once but have slowly evolved from simple local systems through many social and technical decisions. If we are to understand them and manage them sustainably, we need to capture their full diversity and adaptivity in models that respect Ashby's law of requisite variety. Models of evolving complex systems must themselves be evolving complex systems that cannot be created from scratch but must be grown from simple to complex. This paper presents a sociotechnical evolutionary modelling process for creating evolving and complex Agent-Based Models (ABMs) for understanding the evolution of large-scale sociotechnical systems such as infrastructures. It involves the continuous coevolution and improvement of a social process for model specification, the technical design of a modular simulation engine, the encoding of formalised knowledge and the collection of relevant facts. In the paper, we introduce the process design, the requirements for guiding the evolution of the modelling process and illustrate the process for ABM development by showing a series of ever more complex models.
机译：能源，水，运输，信息等基础设施系统是大规模的社会技术系统，对于实现可持续发展的世界至关重要。它们不是在当前的全球范围内立即创建的，而是通过简单的本地系统通过许多社会和技术决策而逐渐发展起来的。如果我们要理解它们并以可持续的方式对其进行管理，则需要在尊重阿什比必要变化定律的模型中充分体现它们的多样性和适应性。不断发展的复杂系统模型本身必须是不断发展的复杂系统，这些系统不能从头开始创建，而必须从简单的系统发展为复杂的系统。本文介绍了一种社会技术进化建模过程，该过程可用于创建不断发展的复杂基于主体的模型（ABM），以理解大型社会技术系统（如基础设施）的发展。它涉及模型规范的社会过程的不断发展和改进，模块化仿真引擎的技术设计，形式化知识的编码以及相关事实的收集。在本文中，我们介绍了过程设计，指导建模过程演变的要求，并通过显示一系列更加复杂的模型来说明ABM开发的过程。

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