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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of design & nature and ecodynamics >FUTURE DISASTER SCENARIO USING BIG DATA: A CASE STUDY OF EXTREME COLD WAVE
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FUTURE DISASTER SCENARIO USING BIG DATA: A CASE STUDY OF EXTREME COLD WAVE

机译：使用大数据的未来灾害情景：极端​​冷波的案例研究

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摘要

The ability to predict the future was considered a very important factor for humanity since long ago. Future prediction, which was non-scientific, took on significant developments with the advancement of science and technology. Nevertheless, predicting the future is still not an easy task. Therefore, it is more essential to develop diverse future scenarios for establishing policies with a clear vision on the personal, or even national levels rather than attempting to precisely predict a specific future event. Particularly, future research plays a crucial role in the field of disaster management to prevent national crises. Future disasters could also result in an unimaginable scale of damages due to the complex network development of our society. Thus, it is necessary to develop scenarios in advance from the perspective of potential damages caused by disasters. Future scenario development largely comprises quantitative and qualitative methods, which are applied identically in the field of disaster management. Quantitative method is developed using various statistical methods based on numerical data, while qualitative method is developed based on the intellect of a group of experts. In this study, the latter method is used because of the unpredictable nature of disasters. Furthermore, in order to provide a solution for the biased opinions that may occur from the group of experts, big data is used to propose a method for developing future disaster scenarios. The results from this method are preferred to efficiently develop future disaster scenarios, because the opinions of the group of experts are mostly biased.
机译：自很久以来，人们就已经能够预测未来的能力。随着科学技术的发展，未来的预测是非科学的，取得了重大进展。尽管如此，预测未来仍然不是一件容易的事。因此，更重要的是要开发各种未来方案，以建立对个人甚至国家层面具有清晰愿景的政策，而不是试图精确地预测特定的未来事件。特别是，未来的研究在预防国家危机的灾难管理领域起着至关重要的作用。由于我们社会复杂的网络发展，未来的灾难还可能导致难以想象的破坏规模。因此，有必要从灾难造成的潜在损害的角度提前制定方案。未来情景的发展主要包括定量和定性方法，这些方法在灾难管理领域的应用相同。定量方法是使用各种基于数值数据的统计方法开发的，而定性方法是基于一组专家的知识而开发的。在本研究中，由于灾难的不可预测性，使用了后一种方法。此外，为了提供针对专家组可能出现的偏见的解决方案，大数据用于提出开发未来灾难场景的方法。这种方法的结果对于有效地开发未来的灾难场景更可取，因为专家组的意见大多带有偏见。

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