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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of finance & economics >BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION OF THE EURO AREA WITH THE NEW AND NEGOTIATING MEMBER COUNTRIES
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BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION OF THE EURO AREA WITH THE NEW AND NEGOTIATING MEMBER COUNTRIES

机译：与新的和正在谈判中的成员国进行欧元区的商业周期同步

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We examine business cycle synchronizations between the euro area and the recently acceded EU and currently negotiating countries. Strong evidence is uncovered of time-variation in the degree of co-movement between the cyclical components of monthly industrial production indicators for each of these countries with a euro area aggregate, which is modelled through a bivariate VAR-GARCH specification with a smoothly time-varying correlation that allows for structural change. Where required to account for the observed time-variation in correlations, a double smooth transition conditional correlation model is used to capture a second structural change event. After allowing for dynamics, we find that all new EU members and negotiating countries have at least doubled their business cycle synchronization with the euro area or changed from negative to positive correlations, since the early 1990s. Furthermore, some have exhibited U-curved or hump-shaped business cycle correlation patterns. The results point to great variety in timing and speed of the correlation shifts across the country sample.
机译：我们研究了欧元区与最近加入的欧盟以及目前正在谈判的国家之间的商业周期同步。有充分的证据表明，这些国家与欧元区总量的每月工业生产指标的周期性成分之间的共同变动程度随时间变化，这是通过二元VAR-GARCH规范建模的，其中时间平滑。变化的相关性允许结构变化。在需要考虑相关的观察到的时间变化的情况下，使用双重平滑过渡条件相关模型来捕获第二个结构变化事件。在考虑到动态之后，我们发现，自1990年代初以来，所有新的欧盟成员国和谈判国至少已将其与欧元区的商业周期同步度提高了一倍，或从负相关变为正相关。此外，有些已经呈现出U形或驼峰形的商业周期相关性模式。结果表明，全国范围内相关变化的时间和速度变化很大。

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