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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of finance & economics >REAL EXCHANGE RATES MAY HAVE NONLINEAR TRENDS
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REAL EXCHANGE RATES MAY HAVE NONLINEAR TRENDS

机译：实际汇率可能呈非线性趋势

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The unit root null is tested against possible nonlinear-trend stationarity for 13 US and German bilateral real exchange rates over the floating exchange rate period. Eight tests specified with nonlinear trends are applied. Simulations are used to determine individual and joint significance levels and to help interpret the results. Unit roots can be rejected for a number of the exchange rates, and nonlinear-trend stationarity appears more plausible than mean or linear-trend stationarity as the alternative. In several cases, estimates of the trends support the nonlinear-trend conclusion with statistical and economic significance. Thus, purchasing power parity is probably violated, but real exchange rates have meaningful long-run equilibrium values.
机译：针对浮动汇率期内13种美国和德国双边实际汇率的可能的非线性趋势平稳性，对单位根零值进行了测试。应用了指定为非线性趋势的八个测试。模拟用于确定个体和联合的显着性水平并帮助解释结果。对于许多汇率，单位根都可以被拒绝，并且非线性趋势平稳性比均值或线性趋势平稳性更合理。在某些情况下，趋势的估计值支持具有统计和经济意义的非线性趋势结论。因此，可能会违反购买力平价，但是实际汇率具有有意义的长期均衡值。

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