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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of finance & economics >HOW TO EXIT FROM FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES?
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HOW TO EXIT FROM FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES?

机译:如何退出固定汇率制度?

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摘要

This paper improves upon the recently developed literature on exits from fixed exchange rate regimes in three ways: (1) It allows for two indicators for post-exit macroeconomic conditions, the change in the exchange rate and the change in the output gap; (2) it tests whether the distinction between orderly and disorderly exit is statistically justified, and concludes that it is not; (3) it deals with the sample selection problem. The results, subject to extensive sensitivity analysis, suggest that post-exits are better when depegging occurs in good macroeconomic conditions - an unnatural move for most policymakers - when world interest rates decline and in the presence of capital controls. Importantly, 'good' macroeconomic policies do not seem to help with post-exit performance.
机译:本文通过三种方式对有关固定汇率制度退出的最新文献进行了改进:(1)它为退出后的宏观经济状况提供了两个指标,即汇率的变化和产出缺口的变化; (2)检验有序退出与无序退出之间的区别是否在统计上是合理的,并得出结论是不正确的; (3)处理样本选择问题。根据广泛的敏感性分析得出的结果表明,在良好的宏观经济条件下进行钉住汇率制的情况下,退出利率会更高(这对大多数决策者而言是不自然的举动),即在世界利率下降且存在资本管制的情况下。重要的是,“好的”宏观经济政策似乎并没有对退出后的表现有所帮助。

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