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Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC

机译：联邦公开市场委员会的财政惊喜

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We examine a new set of U.S. fiscal forecasts from the FOMC briefing books. These forecasts are precisely those that were presented to monetary policymakers, and include frequently-updated estimates covering six complete business cycles and several fiscal-policy regimes. We detail the performances of forecast federal expenditures, revenues, surpluses, and structural surpluses in terms of their accuracy, bias, and efficiency. We find that forecast errors can be large economically, even at relatively short forecast horizons. While economic activity became less volatile after 1990, fiscal policy became harder to forecast. Finally, cyclically-adjusted deficit forecasts appear to be overoptimistic around both peaks and troughs of the business cycle, suggesting that fiscal policy is counter-cyclical in downturns and pro-cyclical in the early stages of recoveries. (C) 2019 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：我们从FOMC简报中检查了一组新的美国财政预测。这些预测恰好是提供给货币政策制定者的预测，包括经常更新的估计，涵盖六个完整的商业周期和多个财政政策制度。我们从准确性，偏见和效率方面详细说明了预测的联邦支出，收入，盈余和结构性盈余的绩效。我们发现，即使在相对较短的预测范围内，预测误差在经济上也会很大。 1990年后，尽管经济活动的波动性有所降低，但财政政策变得更加难以预测。最后，周期性调整的赤字预测似乎在商业周期的高峰和低谷都过于乐观，这表明财政政策在经济低迷时期是反周期的，而在复苏的初期是顺周期的。 （C）2019国际预报员学会。由Elsevier B.V.发布。保留所有权利。

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