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Comparisons and critical assessment of global and diffuse solar irradiation estimation methodologies

机译：全球和漫射太阳辐射估算方法的比较和关键评估

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摘要

Defining better methodologies of accurate predictions of the amount of monthly mean daily global and diffuse solar irradiation exposed is of utmost importance in order to determine the potential for utilizing the solar energy. This study compares and discusses the main methodologies, databases, and software that are used in estimating the solar irradiation to be used for the short- and long-term performances and feasibilities of solar energy systems, especially photovoltaic power plants in Turkey, and addresses the best one to be used to make the most accurate estimations. The comparisons are carried out between the recent methodologies developed by the authors, some models taken from the related literature that are concluded to be better, a widely used database, namely Meteonorm, and a widely used software, namely EU PVGIS. The reference data to develop the methodologies and to make comparison are provided from the State Meteorological Service of Turkey, which is the responsible body in Turkey to make measurements of solar irradiation. The comparisons are based on monthly mean daily values of global and diffuse solar irradiation and are carried out by statistical errors: mean bias error and root mean square error. The results showed that the methodology developed by the authors has shown better performances in estimating the monthly mean daily global and diffuse solar irradiation amount for Turkey.
机译：为了确定利用太阳能的潜力，定义更好的方法来准确预测每月平均日暴露量和日照量将是至关重要的。本研究比较并讨论了用于估算太阳能系统（尤其是土耳其的光伏电站）的短期和长期性能及可行性的太阳辐射的主要方法，数据库和软件，并探讨了最准确的估算方法。比较是在作者最近开发的方法之间进行的，这些方法是从相关文献中选取的一些模型得出的结论是更好的，该模型被广泛使用的数据库Meteonorm和广泛使用的软件EU PVGIS。土耳其国家气象局提供了用于开发方法和进行比较的参考数据，该机构是土耳其负责测量太阳辐射的机构。这些比较是基于整体和散布太阳辐射的月平均日值，并通过统计误差进行的：平均偏差误差和均方根误差。结果表明，作者开发的方法在估计土耳其的每月平均每日全球和漫射太阳辐射量方面显示出更好的性能。

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