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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of green energy >4 Modeling Energy Consumption for Growth in an Open Economy: ARDL and Causality Analysis for Turkey
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4 Modeling Energy Consumption for Growth in an Open Economy: ARDL and Causality Analysis for Turkey

机译：4为开放经济中的增长建模能源消耗：土耳其的ARDL和因果关系分析

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In a growing open economy, energy consumption plays a critical role. Insufficient energy may constrain output, while exogenous factors, such as shocks in world price, may limit the aggregate growth rate of the economy. This study investigates the long-run equilibrium of energy consumption in Turkey from a unique perspective, taking tourism expansion as a proxy for exogenous growth. The paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to determine an econometric relationship between electricity consumption, foreign tourist arrivals, and the economic growth using data during 1960-2010. Granger causality test determines the direction of causality among these variables under conditional error correction model (CECM) supplemented, whenever required, by the Bounds test. Results reveal that foreign tourist arrivals and real gross domestic product (GDP) are significant determinants of a long-run equilibrium relationship with electricity consumption for Turkey. A positive significant relationship has been found between electricity consumption, foreign tourist arrivals, and economic growth in the long run. The estimated ARDL elasticity coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in the number of foreign tourist arrivals and GDP growth cause 0.045% and 0.74% increase in the total electricity consumption of Turkey, respectively, after adjustments consistent with standard procedures.
机译：在不断发展的开放经济中，能源消耗起着至关重要的作用。能源不足可能会限制产量，而外在因素（例如世界价格的冲击）可能会限制经济的总体增长率。这项研究从一个独特的角度研究了土耳其的能源消耗的长期平衡，以旅游业的扩张为外生增长的代表。本文使用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型，使用1960-2010年间的数据确定电力消耗，外国游客人数和经济增长之间的计量经济学关系。 Granger因果关系检验根据条件错误校正模型（CECM）在必要时由Bounds检验补充的条件下确定这些变量之间因果关系的方向。结果表明，外国游客的到来和实际国内生产总值（GDP）是土耳其电力消耗与长期均衡关系的重要决定因素。从长期来看，已发现电力消耗，外国游客人数与经济增长之间存在显着的正相关关系。估计的ARDL弹性系数表明，按照标准程序进行调整后，外国游客到访人数和GDP增长1％，分别导致土耳其总用电量增加0.045％和0.74％。

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