As the academic discipline Intelligence Studies expands, and the scope pertaining to intelligence becomes ever more diversified due to threats facing modern society, ranging from hostile states to anonymous groups and even single individuals,1 a persistent interest exists in developing a theory of intelligence. But such a theory has remained elusive, as detailed in the report from the workshop arranged by the RAND Corporation and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in 2005,2 a description of the state of research that still largely pertains today. For obvious reasons, few areas of research are as opaque to outsiders, and practitioners adhere to a healthy skepticism as to whether a theory for intelligence can, or even should, be developed.3 There is certainly room for a theory about intelligence, promoting a realistic view among the general public and political decisionmakers of what intelligence is and can accomplish.4 Ideally, a theory could serve both ends. A theory for intelligence could at least summarize previous knowledge5 and provide insights about the strengths and weaknesses of intelligence systems,6 but such a theory should conceivably guide rather than prescribe action.
展开▼
