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THE DANGER OF SHORT-TERM VALIDATION FOR LAKE MODELS

机译：湖泊模型短期验证的危险

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Lake models have the potential to assist decision-making authorities regarding issues in environmental planning. However, validating ecosystem models over relatively short time spans can lead to deceptively good results, especially if the initial conditions of poorly known states are themselves regressed. This is most noticeable when the ecosystem is not in a steady periodic cycle, such as is the case with large lakes. These problems are illustrated using a water-quality lake model for Lake Vaenern in Sweden compared with over a century of validation data. This paper shows that it is possible to construct a convincing, but erroneous, 30-year simulation at the expense of exhausting the accumulated phosphorus in the sediment. To address this problem, it is necessary to use validation data collected over much longer time spans, such as 100 years. Consequently, this work highlights the extensive data collection requirements for the adequate validation of freshwater ecosystems.
机译：湖泊模型有可能在环境规划方面协助决策机构。但是，在相对较短的时间跨度内验证生态系统模型可能会产生看似良好的结果，尤其是如果对鲜为人知的州的初始条件本身进行了回归的话。当生态系统不是稳定的周期性循环时（例如大湖泊），这一点最为明显。与一个多世纪的验证数据相比，使用瑞典Vaenern湖的水质湖泊模型说明了这些问题。本文表明，有可能构建一个令人信服但错误的30年模拟，但要消耗掉沉积物中积累的磷。为了解决此问题，有必要使用在更长的时间跨度（例如100年）中收集的验证数据。因此，这项工作突出了为充分验证淡水生态系统而广泛收集数据的要求。

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