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Estimating the output gap for the UAE: a production function approach

机译:估计阿联酋的产出缺口:生产函数法

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摘要

In this paper, we accomplish two tasks. First, we estimate the output gap for the United Arab Emirates using the production function approach. Secondly, we evaluate to what extent the fluctuations of the output gap are an important indicator of domestic inflation. We find that the output gap profile produced by the production function approach fits reasonably well the UAE's recent economic history in capturing past peaks and troughs. To assess how well the output gap performs in explaining domestic inflation, we used a backward-looking Phillips curve equation. The output gap variable had the expected sign but was statistically insignificant.
机译:在本文中,我们完成了两项任务。首先,我们使用生产函数法估算阿拉伯联合酋长国的产出缺口。其次,我们评估产出缺口的波动在多大程度上是国内通胀的重要指标。我们发现,通过生产函数方法产生的产出缺口概况在捕获过去的高峰和低谷方面非常适合阿联酋的近期经济历史。为了评估产出缺口在解释国内通胀方面的表现,我们使用了向后看的菲利普斯曲线方程。输出差距变量具有预期的符号,但在统计上不重要。

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