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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Networking and Virtual Organisations >A web-based Hong Kong tourism demand forecasting system
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A web-based Hong Kong tourism demand forecasting system

机译：基于网络的香港旅游需求预测系统

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摘要

Accurate predictions of future business activities are important for business decision-makings. As a consequence, powerful and simple forecasting processes are urgently pursued by decision-makers. This study presents a tourism demand forecasting system for Hong Kong based on the web techniques to help relevant stakeholders make better decisions within the tourism industry. The system generates the forecasts of tourist arrivals, tourist expenditure, demand for hotel rooms, sectoral demand and outbound tourist flows. The autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is employed by this web-based forecasting system. ADL model relates a set of influencing factors to the demand for tourism, and generates both statistical as well as scenario forecasts of tourism demand in Hong Kong. In addition, the system also allows users' adjustments to the statistical forecasts.
机译：对未来业务活动的准确预测对于业务决策至关重要。因此，决策者迫切需要采用强大而简单的预测流程。这项研究提出了基于网络技术的香港旅游需求预测系统，以帮助相关利益相关者在旅游业中做出更好的决策。该系统生成游客到达，游客支出，对酒店房间的需求，部门需求和出境游客流量的预测。这个基于Web的预测系统采用自回归分布式滞后（ADL）模型。 ADL模型将一系列影响因素与旅游需求联系起来，并生成香港旅游需求的统计和情景预测。此外，该系统还允许用户调整统计预测。

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