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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of production economics >Demand forecasting and inventory control: A simulation study on automotive spare parts
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Demand forecasting and inventory control: A simulation study on automotive spare parts

机译：需求预测和库存控制：汽车备件的仿真研究

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This paper presents results of a large-scale simulation study on spare parts demand forecasting and inventory control to select best policies within each SKU category. Simulations were conducted over 10,032 SKUs of an automaker that operates in Brazil, considering six years of demand data. Literature review drove the selection of different models simulated. The study included three alternatives to record demand data (individual orders data, weekly and monthly time buckets), three demand forecasting models (SMA - Simple Moving Average, SBA - Syntetos-Boylan Approximation and Bootstrapping) and six models for demand distribution during lead-time (Normal, Gamma, NBD-Negative Binomial Distribution, compound Poisson-Normal, compound Poisson-Gamma and Bootstrapping) resulting in 17 "combined" policies. These policies were applied under (s, nQ) inventory control (reorder point, multiples of fixed order quantity), considering two alternative frequencies for model parameters revision (monthly and semi-annually) and four Target-Fill-Rates (TFR=80%, 90%, 95% and 99%), totalizing 136 simulation runs over each SKU. Parameter values (s, Q) were calculated towards TFR using methods from literature. Performance of each combined policy was measured by total costs and RFR - Realtzed-Fill-Rate. Major contributions of the research are the policy recommendations within each SKU category, a new Bootstrapping procedure and the highlight of Single Demand Approach (SDA) as a promising area for future theoretical and empirical studies. Results shall be used as guideline for practitioners under similar operations.
机译：本文介绍了对备件需求预测和库存控制进行大规模仿真研究的结果，以选择每个SKU类别中的最佳策略。考虑到六年的需求数据，对在巴西运营的一家汽车制造商进行了10,032 SKU的模拟。文献综述推动了对不同模型的选择。该研究包括三种记录需求数据的方法（个人订单数据，每周和每月时间段），三种需求预测模型（SMA-简单移动平均线，SBA-Syntetos-Boylan逼近和自举法）以及六种在铅销售期间进行需求分配的模型时间（正态，伽玛，NBD负二项分布，复合泊松正态，复合泊松-伽玛和自举）产生了17个“组合”策略。这些策略是在（s，nQ）库存控制（重新订购点，固定订购数量的倍数）下应用的，其中考虑了模型参数修订的两个替代频率（每月和半年一次）和四个目标填充率（TFR = 80％ ，90％，95％和99％），每个SKU总共进行136次仿真。使用来自文献的方法，针对TFR计算参数值（s，Q）。通过总成本和RFR-Realtzed-Fill-Rate评估每个组合策略的效果。该研究的主要贡献是每个SKU类别中的政策建议，新的Bootstrapping程序以及“单一需求方法（SDA）”的重点，它是将来进行理论和实证研究的有希望的领域。结果应作为类似操作下从业人员的指南。

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