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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Production Research >A decision support framework for global supply chain modelling: an assessment of the impact of demand, supply and lead-time uncertainties on performance
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A decision support framework for global supply chain modelling: an assessment of the impact of demand, supply and lead-time uncertainties on performance

机译：全球供应链建模的决策支持框架：评估需求，供应和交货时间不确定性对绩效的影响

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We developed a decision support framework for a global manufacturer of specialty chemicals to study the relative impact of demand, supply and lead-time uncertainties on cost and customer service performance. Our approach combines optimisation and simulation methodologies as follows: mathematical models provide optimal plans via a novel approach to the supply chain planning mechanism of the Company. Simulation models execute the supply chain plans so as to allow the examination of the outcomes under the various sources of uncertainty. The iterative use of optimisation and simulation methodologies allows the user the benefit of obtaining optimal solutions while revealing the impact of uncertainties on system performance. Our results indicate that demand uncertainty has the greatest negative impact on performance for the supply chain that we modelled in this study, emphasising the importance of effective forecasting. The relative importance of supply and lead-time uncertainties varies according to the performance measures. While our results are valid for the specific supply chain and the operating environment we modelled, our study emphasises the importance of the ability to model supply chains realistically to obtain valid and useful results.
机译：我们为全球特种化学品制造商开发了决策支持框架，以研究需求，供应和交货时间不确定性对成本和客户服务绩效的相对影响。我们的方法将优化和仿真方法结合如下：数学模型通过新颖的方法为公司的供应链计划机制提供最佳计划。仿真模型执行供应链计划，以便可以在各种不确定性来源下检查结果。优化和仿真方法的迭代使用使用户能够获得最佳解决方案，同时揭示不确定性对系统性能的影响。我们的结果表明，需求不确定性对我们在此研究中建模的供应链绩效具有最大的负面影响，强调了有效预测的重要性。供应量和交付时间不确定性的相对重要性根据绩效指标而变化。尽管我们的结果对于我们所建模的特定供应链和运营环境有效，但我们的研究强调了对供应链进行实际建模以获取有效和有用结果的能力的重要性。

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