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A dynamic feasibility analysis of public investment projects: An integrated approach using system dynamics and agent-based modeling

机译：公共投资项目的动态可行性分析：使用系统动力学和基于代理的建模的集成方法

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Increasingly, public sector investment projects face a dynamic environment that incorporates both macroscopic system and microscopic individuals. Prior attempts to analyze the feasibility of those projects, however, have been subject to limitations in accommodating such environmental changes. As a remedial measure, the combination of system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modeling (ABM) is proposed due to their complementary strengths. Consequently, this paper suggests a new approach to dynamic feasibility analysis for public investment projects through an integrated simulation model using SD and ABM. The former SD part elucidates the relationships among system elements that constitute project's benefits and costs, while the latter ABM part depicts users' emergent behavior with their heterogeneity. A bridge construction case study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed approach. The findings show that the proposed approach can provide a valuable and flexible framework for analyzing project feasibility in a dynamic environment. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. APM and IPMA. All rights reserved.
机译：公共部门投资项目越来越多地面临一个动态的环境，其中包含了宏观系统和微观个体。然而，先前对那些项目的可行性进行分析的尝试在适应这种环境变化方面受到限制。作为补救措施，由于它们的互补优势，建议将系统动力学（SD）和基于代理的建模（ABM）结合起来。因此，本文提出了一种通过使用SD和ABM的集成模拟模型进行公共投资项目动态可行性分析的新方法。前一个SD部分阐明了构成项目收益和成本的系统元素之间的关系，而后一个ABM部分则描述了用户异质性的紧急行为。桥梁施工案例研究证明了该方法的适用性。研究结果表明，所提出的方法可以为分析动态环境中的项目可行性提供有价值且灵活的框架。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd. APM和IPMA。版权所有。

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