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The importance of domino effects in flood risk assessments: a case study from the VNK2 project

机译:多米诺骨牌效应在洪水风险评估中的重要性:来自VNK2项目的案例研究

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摘要

The failure of a levee system may lead to an increase in the loads on other levee systems. The associated domino effect may strongly influence the risk of flooding. This is particularly relevant for risk assessments that are carried out for individual levee systems rather than groups of levee systems. This article presents a simplified method for including these effects in quantitative risk analyses and illustrates the importance of doing so with a case study from the Netherlands. The risk of flooding in the densely populated, western part of the country appears to be strongly influenced by domino effects. Ignoring these effects would lead us to significantly underestimate the risk of flooding. It would also lead to erroneous conclusions about the effectiveness of particular risk management actions and the efficacy of strongly differentiated safety standards.
机译:堤防系统的故障可能导致其他堤防系统的负载增加。相关的多米诺效应可能会严重影响洪水风险。这对于单个堤防系统而不是成组的堤防系统进行的风险评估尤其重要。本文提供了一种将这些影响包括在定量风险分析中的简化方法,并通过荷兰的案例研究说明了这样做的重要性。在该国西部人口稠密的地区,洪水的风险似乎受到多米诺骨牌效应的强烈影响。忽略这些影响将使我们大大低估洪水的风险。这也将导致关于特定风险管理措施的有效性以及高度差异化的安全标准的有效性的错误结论。

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