An application of the real options approach to R&D investment decision making in a service division of an energy firm

Nobuhiko Nishimura

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An application of the real options approach to R&D investment decision making in a service division of an energy firm

机译：实物期权方法在能源公司服务部门研发投资决策中的应用

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This study aims for the demonstration of the real options approach on valuing R&D projects and optimising the investment strategy to develop after-sales service products for thermal power plants in an energy firm. A compound option approach based on Geske's analytical model with the volatility estimation through the questionnaire to experts was demonstrated to be an effective tool of R&D project valuation for decision-making. Furthermore, taking the quadrinomial lattice approach, considering the two important uncertainties of market and technology in R&D investment decision-making, applicability was demonstrated. From the relationship between the amount of R&D investment and the probability of technical success, R&D investment strategy was confirmed to be optimised using the approach. Furthermore, the R&D valuation process using real options approach tightens the relation between R&D division and sales division, to make market-orientated proposals.

机译：这项研究旨在证明实物期权方法在评估研发项目和优化投资策略方面的发展，以开发一家能源公司热电厂的售后服务产品。事实证明，基于Geske分析模型的复合期权方法，以及通过问卷调查向专家进行的波动率估计，是研发项目评估决策的有效工具。此外，采用四项格法，考虑了市场和技术在研发投资决策中的两个重要不确定性，证明了其适用性。从R＆D投资额与技术成功概率之间的关系，可以确定R＆D投资策略是使用该方法进行优化的。此外，采用实物期权方法的R＆D评估过程加强了R＆D部门与销售部门之间的关系，从而提出了以市场为导向的建议。

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来源
《International Journal of Services Technology and Management》 |2011年第4期|p.218-238|共21页
作者
Nobuhiko Nishimura;
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作者单位

Service Technology Section, Nagasaki R&D Center,Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.,5-717-1, Fukahori-machi, Nagasaki 851-0392, Japan;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
management of technology; rd valuation; real options; call option; compound option; quadrinomial lattice model; new product development; rd investment strategy; after-sales service; market-oriented proposal; services technology;

机译：技术管理;研发评估;实物期权;认购期权;复合期权;四项格模型新产品开发;研发投资策略;售后服务;以市场为导向的建议;服务技术;

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An application of the real options approach to R&D investment decision making in a service division of an energy firm

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