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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Services Technology and Management >Modelling customer lifetime value in contractual settings
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Modelling customer lifetime value in contractual settings

机译：在合同设置中模拟客户生命周期价值

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摘要

Service provision is often governed by a contract (e.g., newspaper subscriptions, phone contracts, and credit agreements). Typically, such a contract includes rules that influence the dynamics of the customer in the marketplace. Typical examples are minimum contract durations, or fixed time instants for contract termination. The goal of these rules is to increase the future total profit gained from the customer, which is usually denoted with the term customer lifetime value (CLV). We analyse the problem of calculating the CLV under general contract structures. We show that classical Markov models for describing the customer dynamics are not appropriate and may lead to huge errors in the CLV. We propose a semi-Markov formulation which leads to substantially better results. We apply the framework to data of newspaper subscription.
机译：服务提供通常受合同约束（例如，报纸订阅，电话合同和信贷协议）。通常，此类合同包括影响市场中客户动态的规则。典型示例是最小合同期限或合同终止的固定时间点。这些规则的目标是增加从客户获得的未来总利润，通常用术语客户生命周期价值（CLV）表示。我们分析了在一般合同结构下计算CLV的问题。我们表明，描述客户动态的经典马尔可夫模型不合适，并且可能导致CLV中出现巨大错误。我们提出了一种半马尔可夫公式，可以带来更好的结果。我们将该框架应用于报纸订阅数据。

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