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Catastrophe risk assessment framework of ports and industrial clusters: a case study of the Guangdong province

机译：港口和产业集群的巨灾风险评估框架-以广东省为例

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Seaports, as critical infrastructures, are vulnerable to natural catastrophes such as hurricane/typhoon, earthquake, and tsunami. The inoperability of a port caused by these hazards tends to activate domino effects to the adjacent industrial clusters in the hinterland. Limited works addressed high-impact and low-probability (HILP) catastrophe risks and fewer studied industrial cluster risks resulting from catastrophe-induced port disruptions. This paper aims to assess ports and industrial clusters catastrophe risks, based on a three-layer port-cargo-industrial cluster (PCI) model. By using the Guangdong province in China and the typhoon hazard as a case study, we find that the petrochemical industrial cluster is the most vulnerable in the Guangdong province against typhoon-induced port disruptions in the import mode, while the textile and apparel industrial cluster is the least vulnerable. These two industrial clusters exchange rankings under the export mode. Proactive preparations can thus be made to avoid any possible prolonged production downtimes.
机译：作为重要基础设施的海港容易遭受自然灾害的袭击，例如飓风/台风，地震和海啸。由这些危害引起的港口不可操作性趋于激活对腹地邻近工业集群的多米诺效应。有限的工作解决了高影响力和低概率（HILP）灾难风险，而由灾难引起的港口中断所导致的研究产业集群风险的研究较少。本文旨在基于三层港口货物工业集群（PCI）模型来评估港口和产业集群的巨灾风险。通过以中国广东省和台风危害为案例研究，我们发现石化产业集群在进口模式下最容易受到台风引发的港口中断的影响，而纺织和服装产业集群是广东省最容易受到进口模式破坏的行业。最脆弱的这两个产业集群在出口模式下交换排名。因此可以进行积极的准备工作，以避免任何可能的延长的生产停机时间。

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