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Electric vehicle diffusion in the Portuguese automobile market

机译：电动汽车在葡萄牙汽车市场的普及

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The present research focuses on electric vehicles as part of the Portuguese policy to make the transportation system more energy efficient and environmentally friendly. The main goal is to estimate the fleetwide energy consumption and corresponding carbon dioxide emissions up to 2030 and examine to what extent the introduction of electric vehicles will reduce those indicators. A system dynamics model of the Portuguese car fleet was developed that captures the inter relationships between the main drivers of the system while simulating the car owners' behavior when selecting technologies. To analyze the evolution of energy consumption and carbon emissions, a scenario analysis is followed. In addition, a series of transportation policy instruments is tested in each scenario in order to analyze reduction effectiveness of emissions and increasing diffusion of electric vehicles. We concluded that a fast-growing economy is the best scenario to decrease energy consumption mostly due to the expected increase in fuel efficiency of the car stock deriving from a faster technological turnover of internal combustion engine vehicles. Regarding transportation policy instruments, the increase in the tax applied to fossil-fuel sales as well as applied to conventional vehicles' sales are the most efficient policies to increase the diffusion of electric vehicles. Importantly, according to our results, the uptake of electric vehicles is expected to be rather low (less than 10% of new cars until 2030), regardless of the scenario or transportation policy analyzed.
机译：目前的研究集中在电动汽车上，这是葡萄牙政策的一部分，以使交通运输系统更节能，更环保。主要目标是估计直至2030年全车队的能源消耗和相应的二氧化碳排放，并研究电动汽车的引入将在多大程度上减少这些指标。开发了葡萄牙车队的系统动力学模型，该模型捕获了系统主要驾驶员之间的相互关系，同时模拟了选择技术时车主的行为。为了分析能源消耗和碳排放的演变，进行了情景分析。此外，在每种情况下都测试了一系列运输政策工具，以分析排放的减少效果和电动汽车的扩散。我们得出的结论是，快速增长的经济是减少能源消耗的最佳方案，这主要是由于内燃机汽车技术更新较快而导致的预期汽车燃油效率的提高。关于运输政策工具，增加对化石燃料销售以及对常规汽车销售的税收是增加电动汽车扩散的最有效政策。重要的是，根据我们的结果，无论所分析的情景或交通政策如何，电动汽车的使用率预计都将非常低（到2030年不到新车的10％）。

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