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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of sustainable transportation >Technoeconomic comparison of alternative vehicle technologies for South Africa's road transport system
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Technoeconomic comparison of alternative vehicle technologies for South Africa's road transport system

机译：南非道路运输系统中替代车辆技术的技术经济比较

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摘要

The transport sector contributes significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in South Africa, due to the growth of the economy and population. This study considers the potential impact of introducing alternative vehicle technologies such as electric, hydrogen, and hybrid vehicles in South Africa and evaluating the influence of greater market penetration of such vehicles within the wider context of the country's total energy usage. Three scenarios were investigated with results projected to the year 2030: The baseline scenario considered the business-as-usual case, in which no alternative vehicles are adopted. The baseline scenario showed that the increase in GHG emissions cannot be curtailed by improving fuel efficiency because of the increase in vehicle numbers. The second, mixed-mode, scenario assumes a conservative growth rate of electric vehicles and its derivatives. The third, blue-sky, scenario assumes optimistic growth rates of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Based on the results of the three scenarios, a fourth optimized scenario was established, which optimizes the adoption of the various technologies to minimize vehicle-generated emissions. The highest efficiency can be achieved by aggressive adoption of plug-in hybrids as a transitional vehicle up until the year 2020, by which time renewables are predicted to form a sufficiently significant fraction of the energy mix in South Africa for battery-powered electric vehicles to become the optimal platform.
机译：由于经济和人口的增长，运输业在南非造成了巨大的温室气体排放。这项研究考虑了在南非引入电动，氢和混合动力汽车等替代车辆技术的潜在影响，并评估了该车辆在该国总能源使用的更广泛范围内扩大市场渗透率的影响。对三种情况进行了调查，并预测了到2030年的结果：基准情况考虑了“照常营业”的情况，在此情况下，未采用任何替代手段。基准情景表明，由于车辆数量的增加，无法通过提高燃油效率来抑制温室气体排放量的增加。第二种混合模式方案假设电动汽车及其衍生物的增长率保持保守。第三种情况是假设电动和氢燃料电池汽车的乐观增长率。根据这三种方案的结果，建立了第四个优化方案，该方案优化了各种技术的采用，以最大程度地减少车辆产生的排放。直到2020年，积极采用插电式混合动力汽车作为过渡性车辆，才能实现最高效率，届时，可再生能源预计将在南非的能源结构中占足够的比重，以电池驱动的电动汽车成为最佳平台。

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