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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of water resources development >Considering precipitation forecasts for real-time decision-making in hydropower operations
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Considering precipitation forecasts for real-time decision-making in hydropower operations

机译：考虑降水预测以实现水电运营的实时决策

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摘要

This paper presents a new decision-making strategy for hydropower operations to handle uncertainty of forecasting precipitation. This strategy takes into account three basic components: uncertainty of precipitation, operation policies and a risk-evaluation model. In real-time operation, precipitations with different probabilities at different forecasting levels are obtained, and these precipitations are applied to forecast inflows using a hydrological forecasting model. Based on the forecasting inflows, the operation policies and risks with different probabilities are obtained. This study implements China's Huanren reservoir and medium-term precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System to study the efficiency and stability of this strategy.
机译：本文提出了一种新的水电运营决策策略，以应对降水预报的不确定性。该策略考虑了三个基本要素：降水的不确定性，运营政策和风险评估模型。在实时操作中，获得了在不同预测级别具有不同概率的降水，并使用水文预测模型将这些降水应用于预测流入量。根据预测的流入量，获得不同概率的操作策略和风险。本研究采用全球预报系统中的中国s仁水库和中期降水预报来研究该策略的效率和稳定性。

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