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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of water resources development >There Is No Such Thing as an Average: How Farmers Manage Uncertainty Related to Climate and Other Factors
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There Is No Such Thing as an Average: How Farmers Manage Uncertainty Related to Climate and Other Factors

机译：没有这样的平均值：农民如何处理与气候和其他因素有关的不确定性

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Managing uncertainty related to climate variability has always been at the core of all agricultural activities. For farmers across the world, the concept of average rainfall is often less important than its dispersion and distribution during the cropping season. In most developing countries, farming practices are based on risk-mitigation strategies that do not allow for the development of highly productive agriculture, but mitigate the risks associated with the variability of climate and of other factors like markets or freshwater availability. The paper reviews the concept of average precipitation and discusses the stochastic nature of climate variables. It addresses the relationship between climate and crop production and related farmers' behaviour, and discusses the different tools and approaches that are available to anticipate, mitigate or compensate for the negative effects of climate variability in agricultural production.
机译：处理与气候变化有关的不确定性一直是所有农业活动的核心。对于世界各地的农民而言，平均降雨量的概念通常不如其在种植季节的分散和分布重要。在大多数发展中国家，耕作方法是基于风险缓解策略，这些策略不允许发展高产农业，但可以减轻与气候变化和其他因素（如市场或淡水供应量）相关的风险。本文回顾了平均降水的概念，并讨论了气候变量的随机性质。它讨论了气候与作物生产与相关农民行为之间的关系，并讨论了可用于预测，减轻或补偿气候变化对农业生产的负面影响的各种工具和方法。

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    J.-M. FAURES; M. BERNARDI; R. GOMMES;

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    Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Rome, Italy,Land and Water Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), I-00153 Rome, Italy;

    Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Rome, Italy;

    European Commission Joint Research Centre. Ispra, Italy;

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