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Analysis of drought transitions using log-linear models in Iran

机译：使用对数线性模型分析伊朗的干旱过渡

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摘要

In this study the frequencies of drought categories are evaluated by SPI index in monthly time scale using data of seven stations in Iran. SPI index data of total period (60 years) sets were divided into three periods of 20 years and a log-linear model approach has been used to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions among these three periods. The drought class transitions were measured for three periods to form a three-dimensional contingency table. According to the results in Mashhad, Tehran, Tabriz, Shiraz, Esfahan and Kerman stations had no significant changes at 95% level to number of drought classes, in Zahedan station the drought severity had increasing trend. Results show that the drought behaviour in second period is similar to the third. If just the second and third periods were compared it could be concluded that droughts were aggravating and this behaviour could be attributed to climate change.
机译：在这项研究中，干旱指数的频率是通过SPI指数以伊朗七个站点的月度时间尺度评估的。将整个时期（60年）集的SPI指数数据分为三个20年的时期，并使用对数线性模型方法调查这三个时期之间与干旱类别转变相关的差异。测量了三个时期的干旱等级转变，以形成三维应变表。根据马什哈德，德黑兰，大不里士，设拉子，伊斯法罕和克尔曼站的结果，干旱等级数在95％的水平上没有显着变化，在扎赫丹站，干旱的严重程度呈上升趋势。结果表明，第二时期的干旱行为与第三时期相似。如果仅比较第二和第三阶段，则可以得出结论，干旱正在加剧，这种现象可能归因于气候变化。

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