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The impact of monetary policy stance, financial conditions, and the GFC on investment-cash flow sensitivity

机译：货币政策立场，财务状况和GFC对投资 - 现金流动敏感性的影响

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摘要

This paper investigates the role of internal finance in determining firms' fixed capital investments in an emerging economy. Using a comprehensive panel data set from Turkish unlisted small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector, we estimate a set of dynamic firm investment models in which the marginal impact of cash flow on investment is allowed to vary with the central bank's monetary policy stance, financial conditions at the macro level and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). According to the system-GMM estimation results, the sensitivity of investment to cash flow is positive and statistically significant, implying that firms are constrained by internal finance. Empirical results suggest that the degree of investment-cash flow sensitivity significantly varies with the monetary policy stance. While the investment-cash flow sensitivity declines during periods of expansionary monetary policy for financially constrained firms, the evidence is not conclusive for less-constrained firms that can access external finance relatively easily. We also find that investment-cash flow sensitivity declines when broader macro-financial conditions are relatively supportive. Furthermore, firms' cash flow needs grow considerably during recessionary periods (e.g., the GFC) compared to expansionary periods due to less availability of external funds.
机译：本文调查了内部财务在确定公司在新兴经济中的固定资本投资方面的作用。在制造业的土耳其非上市中小企业（中小企业）中使用综合面板数据，我们估计了一套动态公司投资模式，其中允许央行的现金流量对投资的边际影响货币政策立场，宏观水平的财务状况和全球金融危机（GFC）。根据系统GMM估计结果，投资对现金流量的敏感性是积极和统计学意义，这意味着公司受到内部金融的限制。经验结果表明，货币政策立场的投资 - 现金流量敏感度显着变化。虽然投资 - 现金流动敏感性在经济限制公司的扩张性货币政策期间下降，但证据不对较为受限制的公司来说，可以相对容易地访问外部融资。我们还发现，当更广泛的宏观金融条件相对支持时，投资 - 现金流量敏感性下降。此外，由于外部资金的可用性较少，公司在经济衰退期（例如，GFC）期间，公司的现金流量需求增长大幅增长。

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