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A stochastic response surface approach for uncertainty propagation in ship maneuvering

机译：用于船舶操纵不确定性传播的随机响应面方法

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摘要

The uncertainty of various coefficients of 8 degrees of freedom (DoF) twin-propeller twin-rudder (TPTR) maneuvering mathematical model has been determined. A stochastic response surface method (SRSM) is developed for propagating these uncertainties to the full scale simulations of ship maneuvers. The proposed SRSM uses Hermite polynomial chaos (PC) expansion of standard random variables (SRVs) for analysis. Here SRVs are Gaussian variables. The SRSM approximates all model inputs and outputs as a function of SRVs and develops an approximate surrogate model for a specific output. The SRSM treats any deterministic model as a "black-box". SRSM requires less computational time as compared to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method. Full scale simulations of a TPTR model installed with gas turbine propulsion at a cruising speed of 30 knots have been carried out. There are 60 uncertain inputs and 14 uncertain outputs present in the model. A linear sensitivity study has been carried out to select a set of most sensitive inputs for each one of the different outputs. Only the sensitive inputs are considered for computing the output distribution. Asymmetric behavior and uncertainty in the characteristics of twin-propeller twin-rudder system are significant. Uncertainty for overshoot angle, advance, tactical diameter, propeller revolution and thrust, engine torque, rudder normal force and torque are presented.
机译：确定了8自由度（DoF）双螺旋桨双舵（TPTR）操纵数学模型的各种系数的不确定性。为了将这些不确定性传播到船舶操纵的全面模拟中，开发了一种随机响应面方法（SRSM）。提出的SRSM使用标准随机变量（SRV）的Hermite多项式混沌（PC）展开进行分析。这里的SRV是高斯变量。 SRSM将所有模型输入和输出近似为SRV的函数，并为特定输出建立近似代理模型。 SRSM将任何确定性模型都视为“黑匣子”。与标准的蒙特卡洛模拟（MCS）方法相比，SRSM需要更少的计算时间。已对以30节的巡航速度安装有燃气轮机推进装置的TPTR模型进行了全面模拟。模型中存在60个不确定的输入和14个不确定的输出。进行了线性灵敏度研究，为每个不同的输出选择一组最敏感的输入。仅考虑敏感输入以计算输出分布。双螺旋桨双舵系统特性的不对称行为和不确定性非常重要。给出了超调角，超前，战术直径，螺旋桨旋转和推力，发动机扭矩，方向舵法向力和扭矩的不确定性。

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