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首页> 外文期刊>International Shipbuilding Progress >PROBABILISTIC SURVIVABILITY ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGED PASSENGER RO-RO SHIPS USING MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION
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PROBABILISTIC SURVIVABILITY ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGED PASSENGER RO-RO SHIPS USING MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION

机译：蒙特卡罗模拟法对受损客滚船的概率可维修性评估

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摘要

This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for assessing the survivability of damaged passenger Ro-Ro ships through the identification of critical damage scenarios. The Static Equivalent Method is used to calculate the critical sea state the ship can survive in a given damage scenario and Monte-Carlo simulation is used to take into account the uncertainties in the ship's loading condition at the time of the accident: intact draught, vertical and longitudinal position of the centre of gravity and permeability of the Ro-Ro decks. The application of these methods to the ranking of damage scenarios according to the critical sea state the ship can survive is presented for two different passenger Ro-Ro ships. The critical damage scenarios for each ship are then identified. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the most important random variables affecting the ship's survivability. The number of Monte Carlo runs necessary for stabilising the results is also investigated.
机译：本文提出了一种概率方法，用于通过确定严重破坏情景来评估受损的滚装客船的生存能力。静态等效方法用于计算船舶在给定的损坏情况下可以生存的临界海况，而蒙特卡洛模拟用于考虑事故发生时船舶装载状况的不确定性：完整的吃水，垂直滚装甲板的重心和渗透率的纵向位置。针对两种不同的客滚船，介绍了这些方法在根据船舶可以生存的临界海况对损坏情景进行分级中的应用。然后确定每艘船的严重损坏情况。进行敏感性分析，以确定影响船舶生存能力的最重要的随机变量。还研究了稳定结果所需的蒙特卡洛运行次数。

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