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Agricultural meteorology The economic value of conditioning harvest start date on long-lead seasonal climate forecasts

机译：农业气象在长期领先的季节性气候预报上，调节收获开始日期的经济价值

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摘要

Seasonal climate forecasts can now predict climate with significant skill and lead times in the major cane growing regions of Australia. However, despite these meteorological advancements relatively little research has examined the 'on-the-ground' economic impact of these forecasts. This lack of quantitative knowledge creates an atmosphere of uncertainty about whether canegrowers should alter their behaviour in response to the forecast. To address this issue, we developed an agronomic-economic model of the average cane farming the Herbert River District to determine the economic value of scheduling the annual harvest start date based on seasonal climate forecasts. Results indicate that the value of seasonal forecasts when used in this manner is modest with respect to the farmer's annual profits. The central limiting factor appears to be the reasonably high degree of climatic variability that can still occur within each climate phase predicted by the forecast. The forecast value is also dependent on soil type and therefore likely to be highly variable spatially. This highlights the need to better understand how the forecast would be communicated and changes implemented within the context of the harvest scheduling framework and other farm management decisions.
机译：现在，季节性气候预报可以在澳大利亚主要甘蔗种植区以显着的技能和交货时间来预测气候。但是，尽管有了这些气象方面的进步，但相对较少的研究研究了这些预报的“实地”经济影响。这种缺乏定量知识的现象使人们不确定是否应根据预测改变食菜者是否应改变其行为。为了解决这个问题，我们开发了一个赫伯特河地区的平均甘蔗种植农艺经济模型，以确定根据季节性气候预报安排年度收获开始日期的经济价值。结果表明，以这种方式使用时，季节预报的价值相对于农民的年利润而言是中等的。中心限制因素似乎是相当高的气候变化程度，该变化仍可能在预报所预测的每个气候阶段内发生。预测值还取决于土壤类型，因此在空间上可能会有很大变化。这突出了需要更好地了解如何在收获调度框架和其他农场管理决策的背景下传达预报并执行更改。

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  • 来源
    《International Sugar Journal》 |2011年第1350期|p.461|共1页
  • 作者

    J.A. Osborne; N.E. Stoeckl; Y.L. Everingham; N.G. Inman-Bamber; R. Welters;

  • 作者单位

    School of Business, James Cook University;

    School of Business, James Cook University;

    School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, James Cook University;

    CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Townsville;

    School of Business, James Cook University;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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