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The impact of contingent liability realizations on public finances

机译：或有负债实现对公共财政的影响

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摘要

The 2008 global financial crisis highlighted the significant impact bank bailouts, state-owned enterprise recapitalizations, and other so-called contingent liability realizations can have on public finances. In this paper, we construct a novel dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging market economies for the period 1990-2014. We find that when they materialize, contingent liabilities are a major source of fiscal distress. The average gross government payout related to a contingent liability realization is 6% of GDP, but gross payouts can be as high as 40% of GDP for major financial sector bailouts. Contingent liability realizations from different sources are correlated among each other and tend to occur during periods of weak growth and economic crisis, accentuating pressure on public finances during already difficult times. We find that they accounted for as much as one-third of the debt increases after the financial crisis. Indicative evidence suggests that countries with stronger governance indicators and, in particular, more comprehensive coverage of fiscal accounts, suffer more moderate contingent liability realizations. Improved oversight and transparency thus seems to go some way in reducing public financial risks.
机译：2008年的全球金融危机突显了银行纾困，国有企业资本重组以及其他所谓的或有负债变现对公共财政的重大影响。在本文中，我们构建了一个先进的和新兴市场经济体1990-2014年期间或有负债实现的新数据集。我们发现，或有负债在实现时是造成财政困扰的主要来源。与或有负债实现相关的平均政府总支出为GDP的6％，但对于主要金融部门的救助，总支出可能高达GDP的40％。来自不同来源的或有负债的实现相互之间是相互关联的，并且往往发生在增长乏力和经济危机时期，这在本来很困难的时期加剧了对公共财政的压力。我们发现，在金融危机之后，它们占债务增加额的三分之一。指示性证据表明，治理指标更强的国家，尤其是对财政账户的覆盖范围更广的国家，或有负债的实现更为温和。因此，改善监督和透明度似乎在降低公共财务风险方面有一定作用。

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