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Is the Next Economy Taking Shape?

机译：下一个经济正在形成吗？

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Recent economic trends, including a massive trade deficit, declining median incomes, and relatively weak job growth, have been, to say the least, somewhat disheartening. But there is one bright spot: strong productivity growth. Starting in the mid-1990s, productivity has rebounded after 20 years of relatively poor performance. Why has productivity grown so much? Why did it fall so suddenly in the 1970s and 80s? Is this latest surge likely to last? Understanding the answers to these questions goes to heart of understanding the prospects for future U.S. prosperity Unfortunately, economists have provided few answers, largely because conventional neoclassical growth models ignore technological innovation. In contrast, a "neo-Schumpetar-ian" analysis suggests that the revival and stagnation of productivity are tied to the emergence and subsequent exhaustion of new techno-economic production systems. When an old economy reaches its limits in terms of innovation and the diffusion of the technology system, it becomes increasingly difficult to eke out productivity gains. Only when a new technology system becomes affordable enough and pervasive enough is it able to revitalize the engine of productivity. This analysis suggests that although the current information technology (IT)-based technology system is likely to continue to drive strong productivity growth for at least another decade, an innovation-exhaustion slowdown may be just over the horizon.
机译：至少可以说，最近的经济趋势，包括巨大的贸易逆差，中位数收入下降以及相对较弱的就业增长，都令人有些沮丧。但是有一个亮点：生产力的强劲增长。从1990年代中期开始，经过20年相对较差的表现后，生产率有所回升。为什么生产率增长如此之快？为什么它在1970年代和80年代突然下降？这最近的浪潮可能持续吗？理解这些问题的答案对理解美国未来繁荣的前景至关重要。不幸的是，经济学家提供的答案很少，主要是因为传统的新古典增长模型忽略了技术创新。相比之下，“新-熊彼特式”分析表明，生产力的复兴和停滞与新的技术经济生产系统的出现和随后的枯竭息息相关。当旧经济在创新和技术体系的扩散方面达到极限时，要想提高生产率就变得越来越困难。只有当新技术系统变得足够负担得起且普及程度很高时，它才能使生产力的引擎焕发活力。该分析表明，尽管当前基于信息技术（IT）的技术系统可能至少在未来十年内将继续推动强劲的生产率增长，但创新枯竭的放缓可能已在眼前。

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